Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a dead heat in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the Democratic nominee holds a five-point lead among likely voters in Michigan, according to a survey of the swing states released Thursday.
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion poll showed Trump and Harris tied 49%-49% in the Keystone State, thought by many observers to hold the key to the White House this cycle.
“Pennsylvania is attracting the most attention of the Rust Belt states from the presidential candidates — and with good reason,” said Marist Institute Director Lee Miringoff.
“It’s the biggest prize in the region [with 19 electoral votes] and the most competitive,” he added.
“Winning Pennsylvania doesn’t guarantee the White House but it goes a long way.”
The survey found Pennsylvania women favored Harris by 12 points (55%-43%) while men backed Trump by 10 (54%-44%).
Trump, 78, only led Harris by three points (51%-48%) among white likely voters, while Harris, 59, led the Republican by 21 (59%-38%) among non-white voters, far short of the 82% support among the demographic that President Biden received in 2020.
One-third of likely Pennsylvania voters said inflation was the most important issue in this election, followed by “preserving democracy” (27%), immigration (15%), and abortion (11%), with no other issue topping double-digits.
In Wisconsin, Harris led Trump 50%-49% among likely voters, thanks in part to another double-digit gender gap.
Badger State women said they supported Harris to the tune of 56%-43%, while men broke for Trump by just eight percentage points (53%-45%).
As in Pennsylvania, Harris came up well short of matching Biden’s 2020 numbers among voters of color, receiving just 56% support in the demographic compared to her boss’s 73% four years ago.
Among Wisconsin voters, inflation was the top issue for 32%, followed by democracy (27%), inflation (17%) and abortion (10%), almost exactly mirroring the numbers in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Harris performed much better among non-white voters, leading Trump 77%-21% in the demographic — though once again failing to match Biden’s 92% performance in the 2020 election.
The Wolverine State also saw a double-digit gender gap in support, with Harris leading Trump by 15 among women (56%-41%) while the former president only led the veep by five among men (52%-47%)
“Of the three so-called ‘blue wall’ states, Michigan is the one where there is a difference between Harris and Trump,” Miringoff said.
“The Michigan vote is being driven by Trump’s high negatives, where [vice presidential nominee JD] Vance certainly is providing no help for the GOP ticket,” he added.
In Michigan, unlike the other two states, preserving democracy was the top issue for a plurality (30%) of likely voters, followed by inflation (29%), immigration (15%) and abortion (10%)
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to sweep all three states since Ronald Reagan in 1984, only for Biden to restore the Rust Belt trio to the Democratic column in 2020.
The Marist Poll surveyed 1,138 Michigan likely voters; 1,476 Pennsylvania likely voters; 1,194 Wisconsin likely voters Sept. 12-17.
The margins of error in each poll are plus-or-minus 3.4% in Michigan, 3.2% in Pennsylvania, and 3.6% in Wisconsin