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Fresh off taking three out of four at home over the Red Sox, the Yankees hit the road for a six-game West Coast trip, beginning with a stop in Seattle on Tuesday.
Both teams still have plenty to play for, considering the Yankees would like to lock up the American League East and home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs.
As for the Mariners, they have two weeks to make up a 2 1/2 game deficit in the wild-card race.
Thus, Tuesday’s matchup could feel like a low-scoring playoff game, especially given the quality of starting pitchers on the mound.
Yankees vs. Mariners prediction
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -120 | -1.5 (+150) | o7 (-112) |
| Mariners | +100 | +1.5 (-180) | u7 (-108) |
Yankees outlook
Luis Gil is making up for lost time after being almost two years away from the game due to Tommy John surgery. The right-hander is 13-6 in his first year back, boasting a 3.18 ERA.
Gil has elite stuff, often allowing him to overcome more mistakes than most pitchers can. While he walks 4.64 batters per nine innings, he can usually wiggle out of jams thanks to a 10.35 K/9 ratio.
It’s because of his ability to miss bats that he’s able to maintain an above-average 3.82 FIP. Pitchers who struggle with their command tend to become more susceptible to giving up a big inning.
However, Gil’s 0.86 HR/9 ratio suggests he can handle pitching with traffic on the basepaths.
Moreover, if we look at his performance in high-leverage situations, opponents are hitting just .160 in this spot against him with a .245 slugging percentage and a .254 wOBA.
Seattle is an opponent that should suit Gil because in 35 plate appearances against him this roster is striking out 37.1% of the time with a walk rate of just 8.6%.
Mariners outlook
The Mariners will have their version of a young phenom with Bryan Woo on the mound. In his second season in the big leagues, Woo is 8-2 with a 2.38 ERA.
While Gil often blows the ball by opposing hitters, Woo adds more deception by using his excellent command to nibble in and around the strike zone. For example, he does exceptionally well in getting ahead of hitters, with a first-pitch strike rate of 73.8%.
Once behind in the count, hitters are left chasing pitches outside the zone, as evidenced by a 30.6% swing rate.
Woo throws 60.5% of his pitches inside the strike zone, which is incredibly high. Yet, hitters are only maintaining a barrel rate of 4.5%.
For those who prefer an old-school pitching duel, this is the matchup you won’t want to miss. Gil even utilizes the sweeper pitch, which acts like a slider but has more horizontal movement to catch more of the plate.
While he only throws the pitch 9 percent of the time, it has a 38.8% Whiff Rate.
However, his slider also has a 9 percent usage rate, making it even more difficult for hitters to distinguish between the two pitches.
Yankees vs. Mariners pick
T-Mobile Park can be exceptionally pitcher-friendly considering its Park Factors value of 91, which is the lowest mark in baseball.
In other words, for batters and pitchers who played at T-Mobile and elsewhere, 9 percent fewer home runs were observed at the Seattle venue.
For a Yankee team that relies so much on the long ball, there’s always the potential for a power outage.
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The under is 8-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 10 games and 9-1 in their last 10 games in Seattle with a total of 7.5 runs.
When you also factor in the quality of the pitching matchup, there’s even more reason to sanction a play on the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-124, FanDuel)