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The latest Keystone State poll backs up others, demonstrating the gap between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris is small indeed — and the substantial number of undecided independent voters could decide the close race.
Neither Harris, with 49% support, nor Trump, with 46%, has a majority in the USA Today-Suffolk University survey — and the 5% of respondents who say they’re undecided will be among the most closely watched voters in the country between now and Election Day.
Five hundred likely Pennsylvania general-election voters were polled between Sept. 11 and 14, and the survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.4%.
The polling shows a race that fits partisan contours. Both Trump and Harris are at or above 90% within their own parties, and Harris clings to a 43% to 38% lead with independents. But with 18% of unaligned voters still undecided, it’s clear indy voters are still up for grabs.
Ethnicity breaks down along familiar lines established in other polls also.
White voters back Trump, albeit only by a 51% to 44% margin. Black voters are rallying to Harris, who has 85% compared with just 12% for the former president.
One positive for the Republican: Hispanic voters, who have been arguably the most unpredictable group in polls of Pennsylvania and elsewhere, seem to be falling in behind Trump here. He has 50% support, against 42% for Harris, in a very limited sample of voters.
Members of both parties report they’re looking forward to voting, with 93% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans saying they’re at least somewhat excited about casting their ballots. Overall, 93% of black voters, 92% of Hispanics and 89% of white voters voice the same enthusiasm.
That feeling is mirrored by confidence in choice: 98% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans say they’re fully committed to their preferred candidates.
Trump and Harris are not the only candidates in play in the Keystone State. The Green Party’s Jill Stein and the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver are also on the ballot, though Cornel West will not be.
But this poll suggests neither Stein nor Oliver will play spoiler, as just three of the 500 respondents say they are voting for either one of them.