Why Moe and the Sask. Party aren’t defeating themselves has everything to do with their willingness to move further to the right.
The adage that “governments aren’t defeated — they defeat themselves” should be an increasingly troubling notion for the Saskatchewan NDP as this province marches toward the Oct. 28 election.
Contrary to the perception of some who frequently express their frustration at the Saskatchewan Party government, it very much seems the majority of provincial voters don’t really feel that the governing party is defeating itself.
As for those who do “oppose” the Sask. Party government, there’s a marked difference between “NDP supporters” (precious few in numbers, compared with the historic past) and those who might vote Saskatchewan United Party or Buffalo Party because they believe the Sask. Party isn’t far enough to the right.
This is why Premier Scott Moe has been far more worried about losing votes to the right.
In fact, why Moe and the Sask. Party aren’t defeating themselves has everything to do with their willingness to move further to the right.
A recent article published in left-of-centre The Walrus headlined “How Scott Moe Moved Saskatchewan — and Canada — Further Right” has created a buzz among mainstream media and the chattering classes on social media.
The reality is Moe’s political gift has simply been to sniff out the coming populace right-wing trend and follow it. For most of his tenure as leader, this has been his political superpower.
And his good fortune is that the tenure as leader that began by winning the Sask. Party leadership in 2018 has coincided with changes in Saskatchewan where the environmental movement and social liberalization are now seen as threats to a natural-resources-based economy and the values of a largely older electorate.
This takes us back to the notion of governing parties defeating themselves because misplaced priorities have caused them to fall out with the majority of voters. If anything, Moe’s policies this term have been deliberately designed to avoid that.
What’s marked the fourth term of the Sask. Party government — and what’s clearly been the defining source of frustration for so many — is Moe’s willingness to discount advice from experts and do what’s most popular.
When that same movement grew tired of complaining about COVID-19 restrictions, it turned its attention to social issues like the rights of the transgender/LGBQT2S+ community. Moe again followed, with a promise after the Lumsden-Morse byelection a year ago to clamp down on the rights of children with Bill 137 — legislation and policy criticized by judges, lawyers, teachers and the government’s own human rights commission that Justice Minister Bronwyn Eyre had replaced.
And through all this, there is the ongoing battle with the federal government over the implementation of the carbon tax — a massively popular policy position. Of less interest to this government is experts who continue to express concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and manmade global warming.
One might continue to criticize Moe for simply following the trend of the day and argue that history will judge him poorly for it.
But it’s much harder to claim that, right now, he or his Saskatchewan Party government is the minority in a province that’s growing increasingly more conservative.
This is why it’s so unlikely that his Sask. Party will be defeated in October.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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