Not even the staunchest New Democrat is talking about winning anywhere close to the 31 seats the party would need to form a government.
Three months away from the Oct. 28 Saskatchewan election, the NDP candidate slate suggests a familiar problem.
Admittedly, this NDP slate is expected to do better than the ones of the last three elections, when it could barely muster more than a dozen riding wins.
There’s a sense of hopefulness in the NDP ranks that — after 17 years of Saskatchewan Party government — it might be able to exceed the 20 seats it last won in 2007.
However, not even the staunchest New Democrat is talking about winning anywhere close to the 31 seats the party would need to form a government.
Why this is the case is probably best reflected in who the NDP has running … or rather, who it doesn’t have running.
The big problem here is many of these candidates have been nominated within the last year and the NDP still has 14 seats vacant —all rural seats that were last won by a Sask. Party MLA.
When the NDP made its previous biggest comeback in 1986 after being decimated in 1982 by the Grant Devine Progressive Conservatives, it had candidates nominated two and sometimes three years in advance — even in the tougher rural seats.
Any hope of overcoming the massive carryover support the Sask. Party had in the 2020 election when it averaged almost 73 per cent of the vote in its rural stronghold seats would require getting well-known and popular candidates in place early so they could hit as many doors as possible
This isn’t to suggest that the NDP slate isn’t better than it’s been in quite some time. It might even have a few advantages over the Sask. Party.
Interestingly, 25 of those nominees are women, so the NDP appears to be headed toward achieving a long-stated goal going back to the Roy Romanow days of ensuring half its candidates are women. Gender parity has already been achieved in its existing Opposition caucus.
Similarly, the NDP will present a far more ethnically diverse slate compared with the Sask. Party, which should appeal to the part of Saskatchewan’s voter demographic that’s younger and changing.
The problem, however, is that the NDP slate is neither as diverse nor as relatable to provincewide voters as some in the party may think.
A quick perusal of their backgrounds shows two active or former farmers (two farm candidates in Saskatchewan), three or four in business and a couple others whose backgrounds are in things like law enforcement or engineering.
That compares with five lawyers (there’s usually a disproportional number on political slates), 10 in social worker/activist/unionist roles and 15 who are either teachers, principals or instructors.
There’s nothing wrong with any of these backgrounds, but they are predictably familiar for a party that’s long been accused of not relating well to ordinary Saskatchewan folk.
All parties need to have as diverse and as reflective a caucus as possible. One can surely argue the farmer-dominated Sask. Party caucus is even less diverse.
But few would argue that most Sask. Party candidates — especial in the rural seats — aren’t representative of the areas in which they are running when it comes to both background and policy.
And while some might think it’s great for the NDP to have candidates motivated by grievances or specific issues, divisive issues like the teachers’ contract or the pronoun law split voters.
That only adds to Saskatchewan New Democrats’ relatability problem — which is now a longstanding issue for this party.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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