Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: MLB bets, odds, picks for Sunday

After months of underperformance, I believe the Yankees are now undervalued in the betting markets. 

The hate has gone too far. Yes, the Bronx Bombers are a top-heavy offense with almost no depth.

But they’re still MLB’s best offense against right-handed pitching (122 wRC+, four percentage points better than the second-place Dodgers).

They’ve just been hit with some poor BABIP luck lately. 

Conversely, the Red Sox have been super lucky from a BABIP perspective, posting a whopping .340 mark since June 1, 30 points higher than any other team during the stretch.

That type of batted-ball luck is unsustainable, even if the Red Sox are a high-BABIP team with all the speed in the lineup. 

Ultimately, I rate the Red Sox offense as overrated and the Yankees offense as underrated. 

Meanwhile, I believe Carlos Rodon is beginning to find his stride on the mound.

Tanner Houck hasn't seemed like himself of late.
Tanner Houck hasn’t seemed like himself of late. Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

He struggled for much of the season but put together a superstar outing against the Rays in his previous start, tossing seven innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts. 

Conversely, Tanner Houck looks tired.

The youngster has put together a remarkable season, but he’s never pitched more than 106 innings in any year and just hit 120 in his most recent start.

He’s allowed 12 earned runs over his past 19 innings (5.49 ERA), posting a measly 13 strikeouts to 11 walks during the stretch.


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I imagine his arm continues to wear down in the dog days. 

The Red Sox have a much better bullpen, but that’s not enough to talk me off the Yankees on “Sunday Night Baseball.” 

The pick: Yankees moneyline (-104, FanDuel)

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