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UFC 304 is set to be an absolute banger of a card on Saturday night.
Two fights are on tap, and the card is littered with fellow countrymen, including Leon “Rocky” Edwards and Tom Aspinall, defending their belts while Paddy Pimblett returns just miles from his hometown.
It should be an absolute spectacle in Manchester, England, with liquor flowing throughout the night.
Oddly, the main card doesn’t begin until 3 a.m. Manchester time, although fans in the States will still get their usual 10 p.m. ET main card slot.
That could add a strange wrinkle to the night, as it will be roughly 7 a.m. in England by the time we wrap up the fights.
Last week, we went 4-5 and lost 1.47 units, our first losing event in five cards, while maintaining 25.54 units in that span.
UFC 304 predictions
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
The last two title fights that fans are eager to see as Leon Edwards faces Belal Muhammad for the middleweight strap.
These two fought many moons ago, as Edwards’ fight with Muhammad ended in a bad eye poke that nearly blinded Muhammad.
This fight is interesting because Muhammad would probably be the least liked champion in UFC history.
Fans absolutely hate him, and he will be booed throughout Manchester.
If you remember, Edwards won round one, but Muhammad started coming on strong in round two before the fight ended in a disqualification.
The odds here are about right, but a live bet on Muhammad after round one is undoubtedly worth it if you can get +400.
Edwards is the more violent of the two fighters, but it is tough to trust his cardio at this price.
Most of Muhammad’s win condition is a decision win, which sportsbooks expect to happen roughly 70 percent of the time.
You could go Edwards and finish only at -265 (DraftKings) (if the fight goes to decision, your bet voids). There’s some value there.
Two other odd-ball props I like…
- Fight goes to a split decision (+330, DraftKings)
- A point to be deducted (20/1, DraftKings)
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
This fight happened once before, but Aspinall tore his ACL during that fight within the first 15 seconds.
We learned nothing from that fight other than Aspinall entering the octagon as a -135 favorite.
Curiously, Aspinall is a -380 favorite this time around.
More often than not, Aspinall wins by KO/TKO in round one, but the odds here are extremely wide.
You couldn’t get a better +310 underdog at this price.
Blaydes should look to grapple his way to victory.
PICK: Blaydes ML (+320, Caesars)
King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
In my interview with Paddy Pimblett, he seemed to be in a good place mentally, and we know his body is in great physical shape.
Pimblett has poor striking defense, and unless he shows improvement here, he will need to get this fight to the mat or close the distance without getting hit.
The English-born fighter should have a home crowd advantage if it gets to a decision, but I think the submission odds are too wide here.
“I know I have a grappling advantage,” Pimblett said in his interview with The Post.
PICK: Pimblett by submission (+500, FanDuel)
UFC 304 full card picks
- Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad: See fight breakdown
- Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes: Blaydes ML (+310, Caesars)
- King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett: Pimblett submission (+510, FanDuel)
- Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Over 1.5 rounds (-136, ESPN BET)
- Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze: Fight doesn’t go to decision (+160, Caesars)
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda: Wood by submission (+325, BetRivers)
- Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil: Fight goes to decision (-124, FanDuel)
- Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran: Loughran over 2.5 takedowns (-110, DraftKings)
- Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio: Prachnio ML (+135, BetMGM)
- Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons: Parsons by submission (+410, FanDuel)
- Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape: Kape by decision (+335, BetRivers)
- Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie: Crosbie by KO/TKO in round 1 (+1050, Fanatics)
- Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski: Parkin by decision (+120, Bet365)
- Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean: Fight goes the distance (-167, BetRivers)