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Since trading subway lines from the Bronx to Queens, Luis Severino has been revitalized after a pitiful final season with the Yankees.
He was knocked around left and right in 2023, posting a 6.65 ERA that translated to 4-8.
Severino recovered from the oblique strain that shut down his season and has improved his metrics across the board by optimizing his pitch selection more effectively.
Even as he’s developed command of the strike zone, Severino’s strikeouts-per-nine innings rate has dropped to 6.8.
He’s regressed there over the last several years anyway, but he’s sitting batters down at a career-low because the focus is more so on inducing weak contact and less on strikeout reliance.
Severino fell short to the hook on his strikeouts prop when he last faced the Braves on May 12, recording a total of four in five innings.
The Under has cashed in 11 of 19 starts for Severino.
He racked up seven in his last outing against the Marlins and he has only reached the Over in consecutive starts once this year — back in his first two appearances at the season’s start.
Atlanta swings at one of the highest frequencies and ranks as a top-10 strikeout offense in MLB.
That said, this is a lineup that takes big risks for big rewards: The Braves bat .290 on balls hit into play in tandem with leading the sport in exit velocity, averaging 90 mph.
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With a pitcher who’s manifested more consistency in this market, I’d fade the Braves, but I’m not convinced enough with Severino’s ability to generate many whiffs on anything in his arsenal.
THE PLAY: Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (Caesars Sportsbook)