Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t completely closed the gap with Donald Trump — but she’s making up ground, says one national pollster.
And that’s despite a significant minority of Democrats wishing she’d had to compete for the nomination rather than having party elites hand it to her.
Those are the takeaways from a Florida Atlantic University survey conducted July 19 to 21, concluding the day that Joe Biden renounced plans to run for a second term.
The survey shows a 5-point race between Harris and Trump in a two-way hypothetical battle, with the former president leading 49% to 44% among likely voters. When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, Trump leads with 45%, with 39% backing Harris and 9% behind Kennedy.
While this is still a big lead for Trump nationwide, Harris is better off than Biden, who was a staggering 9 points back (50% to 41%) the last time this pollster was in the field.
“Biden’s declining numbers make this candidate change an opportunity for Democrats to regroup and appeal to voters,” said Luzmarina Garcia, FAU assistant professor of political science . “But reversing Trump and the GOP’s momentum will require swift party consolidation and a robust campaign.”
The data show Democratic likely voters may be normalizing Harris as the presumptive nominee quickly. Inside her own party in a two-way heat, she is supported by 85% of Dems, with 7% backing Trump. Trump has 89% of Republicans in that same scenario, with 6% backing Harris.
Harris also has a slight edge with independent likely voters, 45% to Trump’s 44%.
Harris has other strengths in the two-way battle, leading Trump with black voters (68% to 20%), Hispanic voters (52% to 43%), and white college grads (48% to 44%).
Harris also leads with women, 48% to 45%. With the abortion issue expected to be central to the Democrats’ argument for another term, female voters are a group to watch — especially in the handful of swing states in play.
The poll also considered a scenario with a third-party candidate, which created some flux in results.
Interestingly, when Robert Kennedy Jr. is factored in, Trump leads with women, 45% to 40%, with RFK peeling off 9% of the female vote. Harris loses 9% of Democrats to Kennedy, with just 4% of GOP registered likely voters saying they’ll back him.
The survey also found 38% of registered Democratic voters wish the nomination would be decided through a more open process, saying they want delegates to make the pick — though that may be a moot point given Harris has already amassed enough delegate commitments to win the nomination next month.
“On the whole, there does appear to be a solid base of support for Harris in the Democratic Party,” said Kevin Wagner co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab and professor of political science. “But there is still substantial uncertainty. Some Democratic voters are still looking for another candidate. Harris has time to unify the party before the convention, but she needs to move quickly, or this could potentially spin out of control for the Democrats.”
The FAU poll is just the latest survey to track what has been a dynamic presidential race so far, and it’s more favorable to the presumptive Democratic nominee than at least one other.
A HarrisX/Forbes poll released Monday (but conducted July 19 through July 21) showed Trump in blowout territory, leading Harris 50% to 41% overall and 51% to 40% among likely voters.
An On Point Politics/SoCal Research national poll conducted Sunday also showed Trump with majority support, leading Harris 51% to 43% as the reality of a change atop the Democratic ticket sunk in.
Finally, a Quinnipiac poll released Monday shows a too-close-to-call contest, with Trump up 45% to 41% in a six-way race including minor candidates.