Republicans haven’t won a presidential election in the state of New Hampshire since Y2K.
But new polling suggests Donald Trump may be positioned to take home the state’s four electoral votes — and his quest is boosted by the Democratic-nominee switcheroo that just took place.
The New Hampshire Journal poll shows Trump ahead of likely nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, albeit marginally — 40.2% to 39.3%, with an additional 20.5% favoring Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Live Free or Die State.
Due to the survey’s timing — it was conducted between July 19 and July 21, encompassing intense speculation about Joe Biden leaving the race and his Sunday afternoon departure — pollsters also posed the Trump/Biden question.
While Trump still carried that trial heat, it was by just 0.3% (39.7% to 39.4%), with Kennedy up to 20.9%.
Both Trump leads are well inside the +/- 3.99% margin of error. But the polling data includes an important caveat that should hearten Republicans: “Political polls using online panels occasionally display a liberal/Democratic house effect in comparison to other polls, and this should be kept in mind when interpreting the results presented above.”
Against Harris, Trump actually does better with Democratic registrants than he would have against the current president. The Republican nominee takes 6.3% against the VP, while he took 4.5% in the hypothetical matchup with Biden.
Interestingly, Harris polls marginally better with Republicans than Biden — raising questions about whether GOP messaging about the California Democrat is turning at least some voters off. Whereas Biden would have taken 6.5% of Republicans, Harris takes 7.8%.
What to know about President Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race:
- President Biden announced Sunday he is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race — after weeks of prominent Democrats and donors calling on him to withdraw following his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate.
- In a letter posted on X Sunday afternoon, Biden admitted that it is in the “best interest of my party and country” for him to step down as the Democratic nominee.
- Biden wrote that he intends to serve out the remainder of his term and will address the country on his decision later this week.
- In a follow-up X post, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the suddenly open Democratic nomination. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year,” the president wrote.
- Former President Donald Trump reacted to the news by labeling Biden the “worst president in the history of our country” in a call with CNN.
Both Biden and Harris largely consolidate Democrats, but not as well as Trump has Republicans. Biden took 77.4% in his own party, and Harris is at 77.7%. Trump had 84.4% intraparty support in the Biden scenario and 82.7% in what appears to be the final version of the race with Harris.
Undeclared voters, meanwhile, are up for grabs — and where Kennedy draws his support in the politically heterodox New England state.
With Biden as the Democratic candidate, Kennedy drew 32.1% of independent voters. In the Harris scenario, his share is up to 32.4%.
While that still put him in third place among the group no matter whether Biden or Harris was the Democratic candidate tested, it’s clear from this survey that Kennedy is a resonant wildcard who will affect the race in this state as much as anywhere in the country.
Another factor to watch in the Granite State: voter enthusiasm.
To sum it up, Republicans have it, and Democrats may not.
While 50.2% of GOP registrants declare themselves “more enthusiastic” about this election (as opposed to “less enthusiastic” or “the same” as usual), only 35% of Democrats are similarly excited about November.
The data show, meanwhile, roughly one in five Republicans doesn’t like Trump, suggesting he could yet bleed support to Harris or Kennedy.
While 69.9% of GOP respondents say they have always backed Trump, and another 10.7% say they are more recent converts to MAGAism, the remainder have either become disenchanted with Trump or never supported him at all.
The election in this state may come down to Harris making the sale to Republicans who don’t have use for the former and perhaps future president.