AP
With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, the American League East looks primed for a photo finish.
The race for first in the National League East looks far less intriguing, as the Phillies come out of the break 8.5 games up on the Braves and 12.5 on the Mets.
Let’s take a look at both divisions two weeks before the MLB trade deadline and with a little more than a third of the season remaining.
AL East prediction
The Yankees took two of three from the Orioles before the break, which pulled them within one game of the division lead despite finishing the “first half” on an 8-18 skid.
The Red Sox also remain loosely in the division mix sitting 4.5 games back, which could force management’s hand into buying at the deadline.
Bet365 prices the Yankees and Orioles evenly to win the division, while the Red Sox are considered a long shot (20/1).
Relative to the betting market, FanGraphs is low on the Orioles, projecting a Yankees division title 52.3 percent of the time and the Orioles at 43.8 percent.
PECOTA’s model is even more bullish on New York in giving it a 60.2 percent chance to win the East.
The Yankees’ remaining opponents hold a .493 winning percentage, while the Orioles’ opponents sit at .492.
While the Yankees’ offensive play has taken a step backward over the last month, their starting rotation still projects to hold an edge.
That could prove particularly true if Gerrit Cole finds top form again. In his last three starts, he looked more like himself with improved velocity.
What projection systems will not factor in is the possibility that the Orioles add a meaningful starter before the deadline such as Garrett Crochet or perhaps even Tarik Skubal.
While there are numerous contending teams looking for starting pitching, the Orioles arguably have the best pool of assets and could feel comfortable moving an elite prospect or two.
The bet involving the top two AL East contenders that stands out is backing the Orioles to be the AL’s No. 1 seed.
It’s difficult to see why their number is +200 compared to the Yankees’ +115, and the chances the division winner finishes above the Guardians or Twins look quite strong.
It also makes sense in this market to target Baltimore’s high upside before the trade deadline.
NL East prediction
Because they own the best pitching staff in baseball, the Phillies have managed their MLB-best 62-34 record despite spending time without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto.
However, they have the eighth-toughest schedule remaining (opponent .509 win percentage) and seven games left against Atlanta.
Those factors open the door somewhat for a comeback in the division race, but it’s difficult to see the Braves closing the gap given their subpar offense (18th-ranked wRC+ of 97).
Starters such as Reynaldo Lopez and Charlie Morton are likely in for some regression.
Add it all up and it’s tough to make a case for the comeback at +600.
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However, backing Braves veteran Chris Sale at +140 to win the Cy Young looks like a worthy bet heading into the season’s final third.
Sale, who ranks first in the National League with a 3.7 WAR, features an underlying profile that suggests he can continue his brilliant campaign moving forward.
He holds an xFIP of 2.52 and a 2.70 xERA, with a 5.83 K/BB ratio.
The Braves also have the sixth-easiest schedule remaining, which should help Sale’s statistical profile.
Zack Wheeler, who has the second shortest Cy Young odds (+150), could also be used gently down the stretch given his reported back issues while Paul Skenes (+500) could potentially get shut down early.
Sale looks to be worthy of being a larger favorite in this market and is worth a bet at +140.