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The 2024 Home Run Derby will feature both fresh faces and rules.
There are five players who have never competed in the event before while Pete Alonso, who is the +310 favorite at BetMGM, swings for his third career title.
Rather than a pre-seeded, one-on-one knockout format in the first round, all eight players will engage in a free-for-all with the four highest totals advancing to the semifinals. The remaining four players are then seeded based on the highest to lowest home runs hit.
Players used to have unlimited pitches within their allotted time; now they will get three minutes or 40 pitches in the first two rounds and two minutes or 27 pitches in the final — whichever comes first.
Addressing these amendments are necessary because they will alter how to approach the most popular skills competition to wager on in professional sports.
Handicapping the Home Run Derby is always a crapshoot because anything is truly possible under these exclusive and specific circumstances. We can assess the knowledge we have about each player’s in-season performance along with an edge for past experience in the Derby, but all things considered, oddsmakers are on even grounds with public bettors.
Let’s evaluate which hitter carries an appealing price tag along with a couple of long-ball props to contemplate.
Marcell Ozuna to Win the Home Derby (FanDuel +380)
Marcell Ozuna is one of the five freshmen in the Derby, though the 32-year-old has been around the block and back as a major league power hitter. In his twelfth season, Ozuna is having a coming-out party with 26 home runs, tied for the second-most among the eight competitors and on pace to breeze by his 2023 career-high of 40.
The Braves’ left fielder ranks as one of the game’s purest contact hitters, residing at No. 4 overall in expected weighted on-base average — a mark that quantifies a hitter’s exit velocity and launch angle on batted balls with defense omitted from the equation.
Ozuna has three multi-home run performances and is averaging 93.2 mph in exit velocity, higher than any competitor aside from Gunnar Henderson.
Behind Alonso, Ozuna owns the second-lowest odds in the field, in which while they have dipped since the lines opened, I still think he boasts plenty of value here.
Longest Home Run Over 483.5 Feet (DraftKings -112)
When the Rangers constructed Globe Life Field four years ago, they were not considering the advantages of a Home Run Derby when they designed the outfield distances to honor alumni and significant years in the franchise’s history.
Right-handed power hitters lick their chops in Arlington because the left-field wall is considerably shorter than most other ball fields at 329 feet.
The last time a player surpassed 484 feet was reigning champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 488 in 2023. It’s been eclipsed in every Derby since 2015 barring 2022.
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Over 270.5 Total Home Runs Hit (FanDuel -113)
With that theme in mind, I’m leaning on the Over for the total long balls hit on Monday.
Since MLB last changed the Home Run Derby format from the old 10 outs per round system, the event has mustered more than 271 home runs four out of eight times — all of which happened consecutively leading up to 2024.
With a retractable roof above, Globe Life is a climate-controlled park that aids the baseball’s air travel. That’s in addition to being 600 feet above sea level, which makes it one of the five-highest elevated parks in the big leagues.
The rule changes may have confiscated the ability to take as many pitches as possible within the time window, but hitters should be more discerning with what they are given at a park that’s seen 116 home runs this season at the time of this writing — the fourth-most across baseball.