‘I think there’s a disconnect between, what the intentions are to meet the global warming challenges and the reality of the materials that are going to be required’
The transition to greener, more sustainable transportation is impracticable as copper mine production cannot keep up with the rising global demand for electric vehicles, according to a new study.
Cathles said that there has not been sufficient investment in discovering and developing new copper mines to meet governments’ goals for transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to EVs.
Meanwhile the federal government has an ambitious goal of 100 per cent zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 for all new light-duty vehicles. Hybrids do not qualify as zero-emission vehicles. Only 8.9 per cent of light-duty vehicle sales were zero-emission in 2022.
The study shows that in order to meet current business-as-usual trends, 115 per cent more copper will need to be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically so far. Electrifying the global vehicle fleet would require 55 per cent more new mines.
“There are a lot of fundamental needs for copper and it’s not a replaceable commodity,” said Cathles. “You can’t just go banning capabilities unless you have a replacement for them,” he said, emphasizing that the political push for electrification will require significant financial investment.
A switch to hybrid vehicles would be more achievable, the study found, as they require “negligible extra copper mining.”
“A lot of the benefits that you’d like from electrification … can be met with hybrids,” Cathles said.
Remote mining involves self-driving or partially autonomous vehicles employed in mining operations are managed remotely via an interconnected system that integrates GPS, vehicle control, and obstacle detection. These vehicles are specifically designed to function autonomously within mining sites, eliminating the requirement for direct human oversight.
Seafloor mining is notably observed in the deep ocean near hydrothermal vents, where hot, chemical-rich fluids from beneath the seafloor form valuable deposits. Some attempts to extract deposits from the seafloor have been successful, but so far, few have managed to overcome the technical difficulties of retrieving substantial amounts of material from deep ocean depths.
According to Cathles, the study seeks to stimulate discussion among the general public, not just experts in the field, and to increase awareness of the issue.
“Making such a fundamental change is going to take time,” he said. “When you put a deadline of 2035 or 2050 or whatever, you’re asking the world to change on a dime, and I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”
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