Democrats looking for an alternative to President Biden to lead their ticket got mixed signals from a pair of polls released Tuesday.
One survey, conducted by Miami-based firm Bendixen & Amandi (B&A), showed both Vice President Kamala Harris and 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton doing better than Biden, 81, against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
But the second survey, conducted by Emerson College, showed Biden running closer to Trump than any other potential Democratic candidate — and getting a larger share of the vote than anyone except Harris.
The B&A poll showed Biden one percentage point behind Trump (43%-42%) and Harris one percentage point in front (42%-41%). Clinton, the former secretary of state and senator from New York, leads Trump 43%-41%, with 6% voting third-party and 10% saying they were undecided.
In the Emerson poll, Trump leads Biden 46%-43% — and opens up a six-percentage-point lead over Harris, 49%-43%, and a seven-point lead over Clinton, 48%-41%.
In a five-way race, the Emerson poll showed Trump at 44%, Biden at 40%, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 6%, and 1% each supporting independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
One thing the polls have in common is that other potential ticket-topping Democrats fare worse against Trump.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer trailed Trump by four points in the B&A survey (40%-36%) and 10 points in the Emerson survey (48%-38%).
California Gov. Gavin Newsom also trailed the presumptive Republican nominee by three points (40%-37%) according to B&A, and by eight points (48%-40%) according to Emerson.
Other potential Democratic stand-ins polled by Emerson who would lose to Trump if the election were held today include Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who was six points behind the 45th president (48%-42%); former Vice President Al Gore (47%-42%); Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (49%-39%); Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) (49%-39%); and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (46%-38%).
“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” said Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
“Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”
Despite Biden insisting that he will stay in the 2024 race, the B&A poll showed that 52% of voters, including 33% of Democrats, said the president should drop out.
A plurality of voters (48%) — including 16% of Democrats — also said they would not vote for Biden if they found him to be “cognitively diminished” and unable to complete a second term, even if it meant Trump becoming the 47th president.
The B&A poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide July 2-6 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Emerson poll was conducted July 7-8 among 1,370 voters and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.6 percentage points.