Tasha Kheiriddin: Does byelection loss spell the end of Trudeau?

Whoever would take over as Liberal leader has a tough hill to climb — more so after Monday’s result in Toronto—St Paul.

On Monday, voters participating in the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection delivered a clear message to the incumbent Liberal government: it’s time for change. They also unambiguously told Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that it’s time to pack it in.

St. Paul’s has been a Liberal stronghold for 30 years. The last time it was blue was under the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney and Kim Campbell, when Barbara McDougall served two terms as its MP from 1984 to 1993.

Since then, the Liberals have won the riding by 10,000 votes or more in all but two elections. Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett held it for over 25 years before retiring in January, winning the 2021 vote by 23 percentage points.

While many saw the contest as close, few predicted that the Tories would triumph. If their internal polls showed it, the Conservatives kept mum: even Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s key advisor, Jenni Byrne, said Monday night that she expected the Liberals to take it. This is the first urban Toronto seat the Tories have won since 2011.

To call Stewart a giant killer would thus be an understatement. But the giant he felled wasn’t just the riding: it may be the prime minister himself.

The contest was widely described as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership — and the Liberals knew it.

Between the rising cost of living, the dearth of housing and the prime minister’s have-it-both-ways approach to the Israel-Hamas war, voters sent a clear signal that they’ve had enough. The Jewish community, which makes up 15 per cent of St. Paul’s, felt particularly abandoned and angry.

The chatter now isn’t about whether Trudeau will quit, but when. The knives are out, and they are being sharpened both inside and outside the party. This isn’t just about one man: there are now dozens of Liberal MPs whose seats are at risk.

If a downtown Toronto riding can turn Conservative, the thinking goes, then the entire 905 region of Toronto could flip, as well. And an Ontario tsunami could swamp Quebec, whose voters are notorious for going with the winner.

This is both good and bad news for the Conservatives. Good news, because it means that their strategy is working. Their consistent messaging on the economy and the prime minister’s failings are resonating. Coupled with the populist wave that is sweeping the planet, from Argentina to France, there is no reason they should not get a crushing majority in the next election, whether it’s held in the next month or the next year.

But it’s bad news because, if Trudeau calls it quits, the Tories won’t be able to muster quite the same level of vitriol that put them over the top on Monday. That’s not to say they wouldn’t win, but they would have to pivot to attack a new Liberal leader.

As is the whiff of association with Trudeau. Anyone who is part of the current Liberal inner circle will be promptly slammed by the Tories as Trudeau 2.0.

If not them, then who? Outsiders touted for the job include former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former B.C. premier Christy Clark. But it’s a tough sell. Whoever takes over would have a monumental hill to climb — one that just got harder after Monday’s loss.

Postmedia Network

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