One senses there’s a lot to be gained by whichever party becomes the first to inject a jolt of positivity into a an ugly fall campaign.
A governing Saskatchewan Party seemingly willing to use every club in its bag to get re-elected may have left an important one for the use of Carla Beck and her NDP, come the Oct. 28 vote:
Yes, it would seem off-brand for the NDP and not necessarily the right thing to do, economically speaking.
But it could be also be a massive political win for Beck and company.
Given Finance Minster Donna Harpauer’s budgetary woes since deciding not to forego any of that steady PST revenue stream, this would seem a sound fiscal choice. Saskatchewan’s six-per-cent sales taxes will generates almost $3.2 billion in 2024-25 — or roughly $532 million per percentage point.
However, one suspects a lot of people forgot about that one-time money and would rather be paying a lower PST.
Nevertheless, there are valid reasons Sask. Party strategists likely don’t think the NDP will cut the PST, either … or might be worried, even if they make that promise.
For starters, it is off-brand for the the NDP, whose line of questioning has largely suggested their preference is to increase spending on health care, eduction and social programs. The NDP would struggle to explain how they intend to do this and forego a half-billion or billion dollars in annual PST revenue.
Second, the Sask. Party still enjoys solid support in the 29 rural seats. As long as it caters to the rural vote, it doesn’t likely need as many eye-catching promises.
During the spring sitting, Beck demanded, daily, a temporary removal of the provincial gas tax. It didn’t grab much public attention. If anything, it simply afforded Moe the opportunity to remind voters about the federal carbon tax on fuel … including on home heating fuel.
If the NDP is going to achieve broader-based appeal that takes it beyond a few extra city seats it’s already expected to win, it needs something bolder than temporary gas tax relief.
So what if Beck offered a big-ticket PST cut that Moe failed to deliver?
Having already balked at cutting the PST, it would be harder for a governing party to credibly make such a campaign promise.
By contrast, it’s easier for an Opposition that’s not expected to win to make such a promise … while reminding voters of the Sask. Party’s failings.
Finally, there’s a lot to be gained by the first party that injects some positivity into an ugly and negative fall campaign.
The 17-year-old Moe version of the Sask. Party is a long way from the positivity of former premier Brad Wall’s 2007 “hope beats fear” campaign. By now, weren’t we supposed to be competitive with PST-free Alberta, where young Saskatchewan people still seem to be headed?
Sure, the NDP has its own negativity issues. But what would be more attractive than promising the big PST cut the Sask. Party couldn’t deliver?
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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