The Alberta NDP is the only practical political vehicle for the left in Alberta and it’s currently engaged in the process to replace its leader, Rachel Notley. Those contending for the position have an obligation to Albertans to be fully transparent on where they stand regarding the future of Alberta’s hydrocarbon development and climate policy.
This does not mean invoking the typical leftist generalities that claim Alberta needs to conform to the decarbonization of our economy as the only way to deal with climate change. It also does not mean ignoring the economic consequences that come with it.
Perhaps the most fundamental question is whether these contenders are prepared to resist a federal government that is opposed to Alberta’s economic interests.
Whatever one believes about Rachel Notley’s performance as premier of Alberta, it must be acknowledged that she did strive for some rational accommodation with the Trudeau-Butts government: She implemented carbon pricing as the pre-eminent climate policy instrument. She did not resist implausible federal emission reduction targets that could only lead to the contraction of Alberta’s hydrocarbon production industry. She imposed an emissions cap on the oilsands sector that some within the industry considered preferable to a production cap. She mandated phasing out coal-based electric generation and ordered renewables capacity, regardless of economic consequences. She consented to the “No More Pipelines” act (Bill C69) without significant challenge. But she provided significant contributions to salvage the Trans Mountain Pipeline.
The above unfolded when commodity prices, especially for crude oil, were volatile. While it’s a mixed record for Notley, it’s hardly a legacy of resistance.
In today’s political landscape, more extreme climate policy expectations exist from the Canadian left. So, where do the Alberta NDP’s leadership contenders stand on specific and enforceable emission reduction mandates or advocacy to repeal Bill C69 and oppose similar federal regulatory barriers? Will there be consideration of the cost of decarbonizing on affordability and reliability for Albertans?
Would they insist that any carbon pricing imposed be aligned with Canada’s major trading partners. How much capital will be allocated to subsidize “green” technology and investment within Alberta? And how much will Albertans be asked to sacrifice in the name of “net zero.
To date, there is no clear direction on where any of the candidates stand on these most critical issues – most notably the apparent frontrunner, the former Mayor of Calgary, Naheed Nenshi.
Moreover, these questions must be considered in the context of the following realities:
• World demand for hydrocarbons and subsequent emissions will not be impacted, regardless of whether Alberta is forced to reduce its production.
• An incremental increase in emissions will be generated by the non-North American producers who will make up for the shortfall of Alberta’s reduced production.
• World demand for hydrocarbons remains at historically high levels, despite almost 40 years of UN climate action and certain energy-intensive industrial processes (i.e., petrochemical and cement production) rely on hydrocarbons with no economic substitute.
• Affluent countries, including Canada, have not shown any willingness to incur the massive costs required in achieving net zero, considering it would cause a 20 per cent contraction of annual GDP, nor abide by the imposition of carbon taxes on existing consumption.
• G7 countries have not come to an agreement on a uniform system of carbon pricing based on the net costs and benefits of continued hydrocarbon consumption, let alone bring in the likes of China and India.
Finally, we cannot ignore the real possibility of a fundamental change in government in the United States this November that will fundamentally disrupt existing UN climate action and reduce how governments can intervene to assist the energy transition.
All Albertans should consider these questions, but especially those affiliated with the federal government that is so oblivious to rational climate and energy policy and so adverse to the interests of Alberta.
Dennis McConaghy, a former executive vice-president at TransCanada Corp., now TC Energy, recently published his third book, Carbon Change: Canada on the Brink of Decarbonization.