You think the rural/urban divide is bad now? Hold on to your hats, folks. Come the October vote, it’s likely to get a lot worse.
The problem for New Democrats is that they have yet to demonstrate they can win even a single seat in rural Saskatchewan.
Maybe the Saskatchewan Party will similarly struggle in the major cities in the Oct. 28 vote.
But will it be shut out of every “urban” seat in the same way the NDP has been blanked in every “rural” seat since the Sask. Party took power in 2007? Not likely.
You think the rural/urban divide is bad now? Hold on to your hats, folks. Come the October vote, it’s likely to get a lot worse.
However, what’s a problem for the entire province is, politically speaking, a bigger problem for the NDP. Let us roll out the new constituency boundaries map and explore.
As recently as 2003, New Democrats won all but three seats in the four major cities and the north. In 1999, New Democrats won all but one seat there.
Admittedly, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since the turn of the millennium, when the NDP last formed government — namely, four consecutive Saskatchewan Party wins, with three of the biggest vote pluralities in the province’s political history.
However, at least one somewhat recent opinion poll (unfortunately there’s been a dearth of recent polling in Saskatchewan) has floated NDP hopes.
That was similar to the Sask. Party’s showing outside the cities, with 59 per cent support in the “north” (compared with 32 per cent for the NDP) and 66 per cent Sask. Party support in the “south” (compared with 32 per cent for the NDP).
Unfortunately for the NDP, here is where its ongoing problems are revealed.
For starters, Insightrix’s “north” and “south” definition of rural seats includes Moose Jaw and P.A./the far northern seats, which are supposed to be part of the NDP’s urban/northern stronghold.
That likely means the Sask. Party numbers in the 29 remaining truly “rural” seats are even better, meaning a high probability of the governing party again sweeping these rural seats.
But not only is the Sask. Party likely to sweep its stronghold; it also has a far higher likelihood of taking seats in its opponent’s stronghold.
And while the 2024 constituency boundaries map might, overall, be slightly better for the NDP, it still benefits the Sask. Party in key urban seats it needs to hold.
For example, ridings like Regina Wascana Plains or Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis now include either acreages or adjacent bedroom communities to the cities, where traditional Sask. Party voters tend to live.
Also, the Sask. Party in the last election in 2020 won seven seats in Regina, eight in Saskatoon, both seats in Moose Jaw and both in Prince Albert. That’s a whopping 19 seats in what is supposed to be the NDP’s fortress.
It would be exceedingly tough for the NDP to recapture all these seats in one election — but perhaps not as tough as it will be for the NDP to win any of the 29 “rural” seats.
And under the new boundaries map, even smaller cities like Yorkton, North Battleford and Swift Current (still considered “rural” seats in this province) also have larger rural components.
All of this adds to a much deeper rural/urban divide after the fall vote.
That’s a far bigger problem for the NDP than it is for the Sask. Party.
Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
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