AP
One of my favorite betting strategies when it comes to the biggest events on the sporting calendar is the Chaos Theory.
Fans of “Jurassic Park” will recognize the concept, which is that even the tiniest change, decision or break could have an enormous impact on how the future plays out.
The reason that this concept is worth applying to handicapping horse races is that the payoff can be huge.
By now, the entire world seems to be in lockstep that the 2025 Belmont Stakes is a showdown between the two favorites, No. 7 Journalism (8-5) and No. 2 Sovereignty (2-1).
When you convert the morning line odds to implied probability, you get close to a 75 percent chance that one of these two heavyweights will win this race — and the odds are only going to go in one direction (hint: They ain’t getting longer).
This kind of titanic showdown makes for a terrific watch for those who just want to sit back and enjoy the spectacle of a Triple Crown race, but it doesn’t make for the best betting, especially if you’re somebody who loves to go hunting for a big score.
You just aren’t likely to make much money backing either, or both, of the favorites.
That’s where the Chaos Theory comes in.
Before we go any further, please remember that this betting strategy is a long shot to pay off.
The point here is to build a ticket with extreme upside, based on one thing early in the race not going to plan, causing a ripple effect that completely turns this race on its head. It’s unlikely to happen, but if it does, you could be in line for a massive score.
That brings us to No. 3 Rodriguez.
Everybody and their uncles believe Rodriguez will be aggressive out of the gates and duel with either No. 5 Crudo or No. 6 Baeza to get to the front of the pack in an attempt to go gate-to-wire.
But what if Rodriguez, who is two months removed from his last race after scratching at the Kentucky Derby, isn’t sharp out of the gate or just gets beaten to his spot?
Or better yet, what if jockey Mike Smith opts out of that strategy, given how this race sets up?
Journalism is a stalker who wants to sit right behind a target before making his move, and Sovereignty is an all-world closer who wants a hot pace to run into down the stretch. Perhaps that causes Smith to play things closer to the vest rather than go for broke.
If Rodriguez doesn’t get to the front, that could slow things down a tad, allowing Crudo or Baeza to take charge of setting the tempo.
Baeza, like Journalism, is a presser who wants to be right behind the leaders, so a curveball from Rodriguez would throw him into an unfamiliar situation, trying to win from out front.
That would likely cause Flavien Prat to put the handbrake on Baeza to keep him in his preferred position.
This slower, more chaotic scenario would level the playing field against Sovereignty.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting app
He’s likely the only closer in this field who can run down a scorching pace, but plenty of other runners will be brought into contention if things don’t pick up.
It also would give the front-runner in this scenario, Crudo, a legitimate chance to wire this field. He just went gate-to-wire at the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, after all.
And if it is Crudo out front, running at a manageable pace, perhaps that causes things to jam up on Journalism, and he isn’t able to escape trouble like he did at Pimlico.
That could leave the door open for the lesser of the closers in this field, No. 1 Hill Country, to make a potentially race-winning move late.
The Chaos Theory Ticket: 1-5 exacta box.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.