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Betting the NBA playoffs requires flexibility and instincts. And the roller-coaster series between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics has tested those qualities.
The series has taken numerous turns, from Boston blowing 20-point leads to now playing shorthanded without star Jayson Tatum and with a limited Kristaps Porzingis.
Game 6 has arrived for New York with a chance to close out its rival at MSG. For the first time this series, the Knicks are favorites and have all the pressure. The Celtics can play loose, while New York certainly understands the importance of winning to avoid a Game 7 in Beantown.
I lean to the Knicks as 2.5-point home favorites but I prefer playing a prop bet involving Payton Pritchard.
The Boston reserve has been a steady force throughout the series and the sharpshooter has more opportunity and usage in Tatum’s absence.
Obviously, oddsmakers understand that and have adjusted his props but I still believe the market is slightly inefficient. In Game 5, Pritchard finished with 17 points on 17 shots in 39 minutes off the bench.
The entire Celtics team responded in Tatum’s absence and played with urgency and effort while being boosted by the home crowd. That often happens when a star player is sidelined. But is that sustainable?
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In short, I am much more confident in Pritchard’s ability to rise to the occasion on the road and deliver buckets than I am in any other role player. Even though he comes off the bench, I fully expect him to look for his shot early and often — and he has excellent range and even an ability to create paint points.
I have a 42-35-1 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Pritchard to score 15+ points (-128, FanDuel Sportsbook).
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Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.