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Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs often presents some of the best betting opportunities you’ll see all season because the market overreacts — or underreacts — to what we see in the first handful of games.
It requires more guesswork and gut feel, because you can’t learn too much from the stats from just a game or two in a best-of-seven series.
But if you trust your instincts, you can beat the market to some great opportunities.
Let’s look at a few spots worth considering before we’re back in action Wednesday night:
The Habs are worth series bet at +400 odds
Game 1 between the Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens was all about Alex Ovechkin. The newly anointed goal-scoring king found the back of the net twice, including the game-winner in overtime. It was a nice story, but it wasn’t the most important one.
The Canadiens were more than game in the series opener, erasing a 2-0 deficit and getting big performances from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Sam Montembeault in their playoff debuts.
If the Canadiens can limit the defensive mistakes, they can skate with the Capitals, especially with Washington missing Aliaksei Protas for the time being and Martin Fehérváry for the entire postseason.
Jake Oettinger to win Conn Smythe (50/1)
The hockey world (myself included) counted out the Dallas Stars in their best-of-seven series against the Colorado Avalanche.
Dallas is banged up and entered the tournament on a seven-game slide, while the Avs looked like a juggernaut and were at full health.
But the Stars have been pesky, earning a split in the first two games of the series.
And while that may not seem like a huge deal because Games 1 and 2 were played in Dallas, it crucially bought the Stars more time to get Miro Heiskanen, their No. 1 defenseman, back in the lineup.
It’s unknown if, or when, Heiskanen will play in this series, but he completely changes the dynamic of the Dallas blueline and gives them more than a puncher’s chance to advance.
The Stars are still the underdog to get out of this series, but they’ve proven that they can skate with the Avs with a depleted lineup, and if they do pull the upset they may vault to the top of the oddsboard.
In that case, you’ll be over the moon to be holding a ticket on Jake Oettinger to win the Conn Smythe at 50/1 odds, as he stands out as the most likely winner should Dallas go all the way.
Keep an eye on Oilers’ price
You can look at Edmonton’s 6-5 loss to Los Angeles in Game 1 in a couple of different ways.
The pessimistic view is that it was another poor goaltending performance from a team that has been plagued by netminding inconsistencies for years.
The optimistic POV is that the Oilers stormed back from four goals down against the best defensive team in the playoffs, and showed that they can easily win this series if they get enough saves.
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I bet on the Kings to win this series beforehand, but I know that the Oilers are the type of team that could erase a big deficit in a game — and series — in the blink of an eye.
Edmonton is now 14/1 to win the Stanley Cup, and that price could become a whopper if the Kings take Game 2.
At that point it may be worth jumping in on, as the whole hockey world will be counting the Oilers out.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.