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It seems like the entire hockey world has the Colorado Avalanche circled to beat the Dallas Stars in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
It’s hard to argue against the masses.
Everything seems to be going right for the Avs.
They’re playing well, they made some terrific additions at the trade deadline and their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, will rejoin the lineup at some point during this series. Landeskog hasn’t played since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.
At the same time, everything seems to be going wrong for the Stars.
Dallas finished the season on a losing skid, lost Jason Robertson to an injury and announced that Miro Heiskanen won’t be ready to play for Round 1.
A week ago, the Stars were priced as the Stanley Cup favorite. Now, they’re a +140 underdog to win this best-of-seven series.
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Avalanche vs. Stars Game 1 betting preview
The odds for this series opened as a coin flip, and Game 1 followed suit, but it’s been one-way traffic since, with the Avs getting a ton of support from the betting market.
Colorado is -170 to advance and -134 to win Game 1 on the road.
Dallas was a popular pick to win the Stanley Cup before and during the season, and most pundits pointed to the depth of this roster as the reason why they considered them to be a contender.
That depth will be tested in a big way in this series.
Robertson scored 151 goals over the last four seasons, while Heiskanen is one of the best defensemen in the league.
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The only good news for the Stars is that Tyler Seguin, still a nifty playmaker at 33 years old, is back in the lineup. Seguin, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz and Matt Duchene will need to do a lot of heavy lifting offensively if Dallas is to have a hope in this series.
While Dallas can feel secure knowing its forwards can at least skate with the Avs, the blueline is the real concern.
Without Heiskanen, the main assignment on the blueline will fall on some combination of Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, Cody Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin.
Harley is a rising star in this league, but shutting down Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and the Avs is a massive ask of this current group of rearguards.
Avalanche vs. Stars pick
The best hope for the Stars in this series is to keep things tidy. Dallas will need to take the pace out of the game and turn each contest into low-event rock fights, which should allow goaltender Jake Oettinger the opportunity to be the difference-maker.
Mackenzie Blackwood has been terrific for Colorado since he joined the team from San Jose, but Oettinger is the A-side of this goaltending matchup.
I expect Dallas to come out and try to shut this thing down from puck drop, which should lead to a pretty scrappy, haphazard game with few scoring chances at either end.
That devotion to defense sets us up well for a bet on Game 1 to go to overtime at +320 odds.
The Play: 60-minute draw (+320)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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