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We’re now firmly into the business end of the chalkiest March Madness in nearly 20 years.
The two favorites to advance to the Final Four (Texas Tech had shorter odds than St. John’s) have each advanced to the Elite 8, and all four No. 1 seeds qualified for the Elite 8 for the first time since 2016.
One of those top seeds, Houston, will look to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2021. The Cougars have never won a national championship and haven’t been to the finals since 1984.
Houston is a 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee in Sunday’s opener. Those are the narrowest odds of any game this weekend.
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Houston vs. Tennessee betting preview
Tennessee’s resume would have been good enough for a No. 1 seed in most seasons, but the top four teams in this field were an outlier. It would have been really difficult for the Selection Committee to knock Duke, Auburn, Florida, and Houston down even one peg.
Tennessee went 29-7 against the 11th-hardest schedule in the country this season, and the Vols scored wins over Florida, Auburn, and Alabama, all of whom made it to the Elite 8.
The AP and Coaches’ Poll both had Tennessee ranked No. 6 before the tournament, but the Vols were the fifth-best team in KenPom’s power rankings.
The Volunteers have looked terrific in their three games in the tournament, winning comfortably against Wofford, UCLA, and Kentucky to get to the Elite 8.
Houston vs. Tennessee pick
Tennessee and Houston are two elite teams, and both of them are powered by their defense.
The Cougars grade out as the top defensive team in the nation, per KenPom, and Tennessee is right behind them in third.
That isn’t the only similarity between these two teams. Houston and Tennessee are two of the slowest teams in the country, per KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric.
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This could be a rock fight, with easy points few and far between.
That’s why the Over/Under is sitting at 123.5, the lowest on the weekend’s slate and a full 50 points below the total for Saturday’s clash between Duke and Alabama.
Considering the stakes of this game and the profiles of these two teams, I see it very hard to go anywhere but the under on Sunday.
The Pick: Under 123.5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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