Young adults have been flocking to small towns and rural areas at the most dramatic pace in decades—and it’s a trend that’s not letting up anytime soon.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, internal migration took an unexpected turn with large numbers of younger adults aged 25 to 44 flocking to these areas. And as a result, they’ve been fueling a small-town revival, according to Hamilton Lombard, estimates program manager of the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Research.
The 2023 county population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in spring 2024 showed that since 2020, two-thirds of growth in the population occurred in areas with fewer than 1 million residents, or in rural counties.
And despite many companies mandating a return to the office, the migration of younger adults into these areas accelerated in 2023.
“Perhaps the most striking statistic within the 2023 age estimates is the fact that since 2020, the country’s small towns and rural areas have been attracting younger adults at the highest rate in nearly a century,” writes Lombard.
This is in stark contrast to the past decade, where 90% of this growth was concentrated in the largest metro areas with more than 4 million residents.
Starting in the late 1970s, young adults pursuing well-paying jobs in white-collar industries started fleeing areas with populations of fewer than 250,000 people in favor of places like New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, DC.
By the 1990s, this large-scale exodus caused a change in the population, where many of these areas failed to gain new residents younger than 45. That continued into the 2010s when migration into larger metros reached its highest point in more than a half-century.
“The migration of young adults from rural to urban areas caused communities to become increasingly unbalanced demographically,” writes Lombard.
For example, Arlington County, VA, across the Potomac River from Washington, DC, which saw its population of young adults grow faster than in any other county within the nation’s 20 largest metros, had six times as many younger residents as those over age 65.
Meanwhile, in the more rural Highland County, VA, along Virginia’s western border, the over-65 population was twice the size of residents aged 25 to 44.
As the 2010s rolled on, Lombard writes that all the census and economic data were pointing to the age divide between rural and urban areas growing ever wider.
But in 2020, just as the U.S., along with the rest of the world, was walloped by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demographic trajectory made an unexpected U-turn.
Small towns and rural areas become youth magnets
During the 2010s, 90% of the growth in the young adult population was concentrated in the nation’s largest metros with over 4 million residents. But since 2020, 75% of the growth in the 25-to-44 demographic has been seen in cities with populations of less than 1 million, or in rural enclaves.
Lombard stresses, however, that America’s millennials and Gen Z are strategic about which rural areas they choose to decamp to, favoring those regions that have top natural amenities.
Natural amenities refer to region-specific characteristics like an area’s climate, landscape, open spaces, and bodies of water, including lakes and oceans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For example, Colorado’s remote Chafee County, located in the Rocky Mountains and boasting a high USDA natural amenity score, has seen its younger workforce double compared with the national rate over the past 10 years.
Meanwhile, counties in Southern Appalachia’s coal country, which are low on natural amenities, have experienced a dearth of youth migration.
‘Zoom towns’ are here to stay
During the pandemic, when remote working was enforced, the concept of “Zoom towns” became a phenomenon. These remote suburbs and rural areas soon saw an influx of city workers ridding themselves of their cramped apartments and homes in favor of larger and more affordable living.
Many companies, including J.P. Morgan and Google, have since reversed their pandemic-era work-from-home policies. But despite that, data analyzed by Lombard shows that many workers have been able to retain what he calls “geographic flexibility.”
In other words, the growth of young adult populations in most rural counties was accompanied by a surge in incomes, suggesting that many were able to hold on to their remote work arrangements in the post-pandemic years.
And what’s more, economic data suggest that the former city dwellers-turned-rural residents have not just been sitting in Zoom meetings all this time.
From 2019 to 2023, IRS applications to launch new businesses in the smallest metro areas and rural counties shot up 13% faster than in other parts of the U.S.
Not surprisingly, remote areas with top natural amenities, such as forests and lakes, experienced the most dramatic increases in new business activity.
COVID-19 tells only part of the story
While it is undeniable that COVID-19 and the resulting surge in remote work turbocharged the migration of younger adults, Lombard argues that some crucial demographic trends predated the global calamity.
Census figures indicate that by 2017, rural counties had already started to draw more residents in the 25-to-44 bracket than they were losing. At the same time, the nation’s biggest and priciest metros, among them Los Angeles and New York City, were experiencing an outflow of young professionals.
“The booming economy of the late 2010s made moving farther from major job centers more financially feasible,” according to Lombard. “Rising housing prices in large metro areas also made more affordable small towns increasingly attractive.”
Based on existing demographic trends, Lombard predicts that in years to come, smaller cities and rural communities, particularly those with “enticing amenities,” will continue to attract younger remote workers seeking greater flexibility.