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Alex “Poatan” Pereira is a pick’em price as he faces Russian wrestling savant Magomed Ankalaev on Saturday at UFC 313.
If that line holds it will be his lowest price since 2023, when he closed at -108 odds against Jiri Prochazka.
He has not entered a bout as an underdog since he defeated Israel Adesanya with +170 odds in November 2022.
UFC 313’s main event isn’t all we have to look forward to, with 12 fights to dive into and bet on.
Last week, we dominated the field at the Apex by nailing four underdog bets and profiting 5.15 units.
The 5-3 showing has brought us way up the ladder in the profitability department and we have only missed profitability in one card so far this year.
Our total record is 25-29 this year, but we’re also targeting tons of plus-money, long-shot wagers.
We’ve profited 12.4 units this year with a 22.96 return on investment.
The good times will hopefully continue rolling as we move onto UFC 313, with early prelims beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET and the main card PPV starting at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 313 predictions
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
It’s a very binary fight at light heavyweight as Pereira showcases perhaps the best striking in UFC history and definitely in the light heavyweight division.
If Pereira connects on Ankalaev’s chin, you’re likely looking at a knockout win for the intimidating Brazilian.
Now, Pereira’s takedown defense is not good and arguably bad.
But no one has been able to grapple him for a consistent amount of time in the UFC.
Meanwhile, Ankalaev had been passed over for this chance at fighting the UFC’s biggest star for the title due to the lack of excitement and urgency in the grappling department.
Ankalaev has said he won’t grapple in this fight and then backtracked by telling Pereira he will need to grapple for 25 minutes.
It’s impossible to trust the Russian’s willingness to wrestle throughout the 25 minutes.
He was submitted with one second left in a fight against Paul Craig and just makes too many mistakes.
Bet on the intimidating Pereira to win this one by knockout.
PICK: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Justin Gaethje is a legend. He’s been fighting in wars seemingly every time out there since 2011.
At some point, though, the damage accumulation has to show its face in his performance.
“The Highlight” is coming off the worst knockout loss of his career, being drilled with a right hook from oblivion by Max Holloway.
It could be the end of the line for a fighter who is historically great at taking damage and delivering more than his opponent bargained for.
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These two fighters have fought in the past, with Rafael Fiziev came into that fight as a massive -225 favorite and losing a narrow split decision.
He looked much faster than Gaethje in the first round, before wearing down in the second and narrowly losing a majority decision.
Gaethje did poke him in the eye, though, which is a consistent problem in the UFC.
Fiziev is more trustworthy at this point in his career even on short notice.
Based on what we saw in the first fight in 2023, Fiziev is the guy to target in what should be an excellent co-main event.
PICK: Fiziev moneyline (-162, Caesars)
UFC 313 full card picks (Main and Prelims)
- Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Magomed Ankalaev: Pereira by KO/TKO (+150, Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Justin Gaethje (+136) vs. Rafael Fiziev: Fiziev ML (-162, Caesars)
- Jalin Turner (+110) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes: Fight won’t start round 2 (-110, Bet365)
- Amanda Lemos (+120) vs. Iasmin Lucindo: Lemos moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
- King Green (+350) vs. Mauricio Ruffy: Ruffy by KO/TKO (+105, Bet365)
- Curtis Blaydes (-325) vs. Rizvan Kuniev: Fight goes the distance (+138, BetRivers)
- Joshua Van (-180) vs. Rei Tsuruya: Rei Tsuruya ML (+165, Caesars)
- Brunno Ferreira (+120) vs. Armen Petrosyan: Petrosyan by decision (+270, ESPN BET)
- Alex Morono (+550) vs. Carlos Leal: Leal ATS -7.5 (-185, DraftKings) -> Bet wins if Leal wins by finish or the decision difference is more than 7 points. (Ex: 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
- Mairon Santos (-300) vs. Francis Marshall: Fight goes the distance (-150, BetRivers)
- Chris Gutierrez (+100) vs. John Castaneda: Castaneda by decision
- Djorden Santos (-195) vs. Ozzy Diaz: Santos ML + fight starts round 2 (-102, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.