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The Phoenix Suns have covered the point spread in only 14 of 37 games, which is an NBA-worst .378 cover percentage.
However, with their new starting lineup, they are both 1-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS).
That presents a handicapping conundrum.
Hawks vs. Sunds odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | +6.5 (-108) | +225 | o238.5 (-112) |
| Suns | -6.5 (-112) | -278 | u238.5 (-108) |
I cannot just blindly tail or fade a trend, especially when a notable change occurs. First off, there is market correction. Specifically, a roulette wheel’s probability and odds do not change.
However, a sports team’s power ratings are fluid and thus a one-sided trend is likely to correct itself eventually.
Second, and more importantly, a full dissection and inventory is needed.
Phoenix’s issues go well beyond the point spread struggles. With a 16-19 record, the All-Star cast of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal has not thrived.
Injuries have played a role but they still do not mesh well when healthy, which is why coach Mike Budenholzer decided to move Beal and Jusuf Nurkic out of the starting lineup and bring them off the bench.
“They’re a team you almost draw a line through until their rotations settle and they figure out what they are,” VSiN host and betting analyst Jonathan Von Tobel told Only Players via text. “Beal is an absolute nightmare. He makes their net rating 11.1 points worse every 100 possessions he’s on the floor.”
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The new lineup initially provided a spark in the first game, as the Suns won at the Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points. Beal scored 25 points on 10-for-15 shooting in 30 minutes.
However, the Suns returned to their flawed ways the very next night, losing to the Charlotte Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites. Beal finished with 10 points on 5-for-13 shooting in 31 minutes.
“I just think he’s overrated as a player at this point in his career, both in terms of his ability to make a positive impact on the court and in terms of his impact on the betting markets,” professional bettor Carl Sack of KillerCappers.com told Only Players via email. “Ultimately, they’re not changing total minutes. They’re just staggering them.”
One prominent NBA insider told me that players and management are done with Beal, which makes sense. His name is involved in trade rumors, particularly with the Miami Heat and Jimmy Butler. So unless a trade materializes, the lineup change may just feel like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
“Both Nurkic and [Mason] Plumlee are negatives at center with Nurkic being a much worse option. So even when trying to properly evaluate these lineups, you’re talking about switching bad pieces for worse pieces or vice versa,” Von Tobel said.
In my eyes, the reason to fade the Suns nightly, including at home against the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday, is their aptitude and attitude.
Durant is a great player at his best but he is often disinterested, behaving like a player who has already won titles and just wants the playoffs to start. And clearly all the pieces do not fit well together, yet the betting market continues to skew too favorably toward them.
BEST BET: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.