Bucks vs. Thunder odds, prediction: NBA Cup Final pick, best bet

The NBA Cup finale will take centerstage in the basketball world, live from Las Vegas, with the second trophy being divvied out on Tuesday night.

The Oklahoma City Thunder — perhaps the league’s best team — have dominated the competition so far this year and will match up with the surging Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee looked like a shell of its former dominant selves in the early going but have since righted the ship under coach Doc Rivers.

The Thunder are five-point favorites according to Bet365, Sportsbook with the Bucks’ moneyline coming in at +165.

Bucks vs. Thunder odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bucks +5 (-111) +165 Over 216 (-110)
Thunder -5 (-109) -200 Under 216-110)
Odds provided by Bet365

Bucks vs. Thunder prediction

Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the NBA according to defensive rating, while the Bucks can’t come close to that defensive prowess now that they have Damian Lillard allowing blowbys constantly on that end of the floor.

Milwaukee does have a strong offensive setup, however, with a top-10 offense according to offensive net rating.

And we know that the Bucks have potential as a legitimate NBA Championship-caliber team thanks to do-it-all superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.

But this matchup gets supremely tricky for Milwaukee because Oklahoma City has so many defensive bodies to throw at the “Greek Freak.”

Antetokounmpo will face some combination of Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams anytime he touches the ball.

Damian Lillard is still an offensive weapon for Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard is still an offensive weapon for Milwaukee. NBAE via Getty Images

In a high-pressure game like this, it is tough to expect him to get enough foul calls to really take this game over.

I’m expecting the Thunder to walk through this one with a win and cover the spread.

As for props, expect aging star Khris Middleton to get plenty of runway in this one assuming he is active.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder NBAE via Getty Images


Betting on the NBA?


Middleton to go over 7.5 rebounds + assists is +105 on ESPN BET, a number he cleared in all but one game this season.

Be sure to check game reports ahead of the game but if he doesn’t play, the bet will void.

PICKS: Thunder -5 (-109, Bet365) | Khris Middleton over 7.5 rebounds + assists (+105, ESPN BET)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

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