NFL Week 15 picks: Big implications behind Rams-49ers and Bills-Lions matchups

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 10-3 (.769); season 141-67 (.678). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 5-8 (.385); season 111-95-2 (.539). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.

Can Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, shown throwing a pass in front of 49ers defensive lineman Malik Collins in September, beat San Francisco twice this season?

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Tonight, 5:15. TV: Channel 11, Prime Video

Line: 49ers by 2½. O/U: 49½.

Even though the 49ers usually have the upper hand in this matchup, the Rams are healthier and are looking explosive both on offense and with that young defensive front.

Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 21

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) has played well since he returned as the the starter.

(Jacob Kupferman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11

Line: Panthers by 2½. O/U: 42½.

This one figures to be close. The Panthers have looked better lately and they’re playing hard. Cooper Rush has done a respectable job, and Micah Parsons will be all over Bryce Young.

Pick: Cowboys 23, Panthers 20

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) pulled out another close victory in Week 14 as Kansas City overcame the Chargers.

(Ed Zurga / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2

Line: Chiefs by 4½. O/U: 45½.

Week after week, the Chiefs have been incredibly lucky. Their last four wins were by a combined nine points. Maybe they’ll create some breathing room against the up-and-down Browns.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Browns 21

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) has won four of five starts since his return from a concussion.

(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Texans by 2½. O/U: 46½.

The Texans are rested, but they aren’t as reliable as their fans had hoped. The Dolphins are 4-1 since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. He’ll feel the heat of that Houston pass rush but should prevail.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Texans 22

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) seems to have lost his winning touch in New York.

(Lynne Sladky / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Jets by 3½. O/U: 40½.

A couple of hugely disappointing three-win teams. The Jaguars couldn’t generate much of anything against Tennessee last week, the the Jets defense is at least that good. Still, it’s the Jets.

Pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 17

With Derek Carr (4) out with a hand injury, the Saints have been quiet about who will start at quarterback this week.

(John Munson / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Commanders by 7. O/U: 43½.

The Commanders return to action after an off week and are relatively healthy. The Saints are banged up with Derek Carr out for the foreseeable future. Jayden Daniels will keep rolling.

Pick: Commanders 30, Saints 17

Quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) and the Ravens had a week off to get ready for the stretch run.

(David Richard / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Ravens by 14½. O/U: 43½.

The Baltimore defense isn’t as good as it typically is, but it should look terrific against that anemic Giants offense. Lamar Jackson will be hard for New York to contain.

Pick: Ravens 31, Giants 13

Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) runs past Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (26) after a catch on Monday night.

(Julio Cortez / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bengals by 4½. O/U: 46½.

The Bengals showed heart in their win over Dallas. Tennessee’s offense isn’t good, but it will be up against a wobbly Cincinnati defense. Tennessee will have a hard time keeping pace.

Pick: Bengals 23, Titans 17

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) walks off the field after being injured against the Chiefs. He missed one play before returning to action.

(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11

Line:Chargers by 3. O/U: 46½.

A lot depends on the health of Justin Herbert. Baker Mayfield is playing well for Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers are really going to miss safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Pick: Chargers 21, Buccaneers 17

Against the Rams, Bills quarterback Josh Allen became the first player to run for three touchdowns and pass for another three in one NFL game.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 2

Line: Lions by 1½. O/U: 54½.

It doesn’t feel as if the Bills are going to lose back-to-back games, and they’re better than Green Bay, which took Detroit to the limit last week. The Lions have injuries at some key defensive spots.

Pick: Bills 27, Lions 24

Quarterback Kyler Murray (1) and the Cardinals lost their third game in row last week.

(Rick Scuteri / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Cardinals by 5½. O/U: 46½.

The Cardinals have lost three straight after a four-game winning streak. New England’s defense is pretty tough and physical. The Cardinals have more weapons on offense.

Pick: Cardinals 23, Patriots 20

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix (10) has led the Broncos to eight wins and put them firmly in playoff contention.

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Broncos by 3½. O/U: 44½.

Denver’s defense is legit, and Bo Nix is doing surprisingly well in that offense. The Colts will try to run it, and they should stay in the game for a while. But Nix makes more plays than Anthony Richardson.

Pick: Broncos 24, Colts 20

Saquon Barkley’s terrific season has led many to question the passing attack behind Jalen Hurts, shown handing the ball to the Eagles running back.

(Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Eagles by 5½. O/U: 42½.

Great cross-state game. Pittsburgh keeps piling up the victories, but winning in Philadelphia and containing Saquon Barkley, with as well as the Eagles have been playing, is a tall order.

Pick: Eagles 28, Steelers 24

The Packers’ Josh Jacobs (8) has been running free this season.

(Matt Ludtke / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4

Line: Packers by 2½. O/U: 46½.

The Seahawks have won four in a row and are starting to play stout defense, clamping down on the run against Arizona. They will need to do the same against Josh Jacobs.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Packers 20

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) has won 11 of 13 starts in his first season with Minnesota.

(Stacy Bengs/AP)

Monday, 5 p.m. TV: Channel 7

Line: Vikings by 7. O/U: 44½.

The Bears are 0-6 on the road and got obliterated at San Francisco last week. The Vikings have won six in a row, and even though it’s a divisional game it shouldn’t be close.

Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 16

With Raiders injuries mounting, quarterback Desmond Ridder (10) might get the start against his former team, the Falcons.

(Rick Scuteri / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:30 p.m. TV: ESPN

Line: Falcons by 4½. O/U: 44½.

More quarterback problems for the Raiders, who could turn to Desmond Ridder. Their defense can be solid, though. Atlanta should have enough firepower to pull away late.

Pick: Falcons 27, Raiders 17