Sergei Karpukhin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow, his family’s bloody rule of Syrasia ended after 53 years: It’s a huge loss for his chief sponsors, the Iranian regime and Vladimir Putin — one with implications far from the Middle East.
President-elect Donald Trump drew one smart lesson: This is another reason for Putin to stand down in Ukraine, as it’s a clear sign his imperial ambitions exceed his reach, despite (or maybe because of) his alliances with Iran and China.
Trump’s been clear that he wants an end to the carnage of Putin’s war in Ukraine, but also that he’s not going to just hang Kyiv out to dry: This is a chance for Putin to come in from the cold, re-engage with the West — and escape his current humiliating dependence on Beijing.
Iran is also looking like an uncertain ally, as it too overreached disastrously when it gave Hamas the go-ahead for the Oct. 7, 2023 assault on Israel and directed its other pawns (Hezbollah, the Houthis) to follow up.
Israel’s defense in that multi-front war has been a disaster for Tehran: Hamas is demolished, Hezbollah decimated (and now cut off from easy resupply via Assad’s Syria).
And the Houthis are badly exposed, having declared war on global commerce by shutting down Red Sea trade: The rest of the region, and the West, will be looking to not just settle scores, but shut down this threat permanently.
And the Iranian regime itself is at risk: Israel has come out the clear winner in two straight aerial exchanges, as Tehran’s missiles did no damage while Jerusalem proved it can bomb the Islamic Republic with impunity — and may well do so again to take out Iran’s nuclear-weapons program.
Worse, the Iranian people remain restive after years of protest, while Supreme Leader Ali Khameini is 85 and reportedly ailing — with no certain successor as the regime remains badly factionalized.
Meanwhile, Putin knows that Washington is about to be far less feckless, and Trump’s tour de force at the Notre Dame ceremonies suggest the entire Western alliance knows it.
Trump has always been careful to show Putin the respect he craves, but it’s also true that he’s been the only US president this century on whose watch Russia didn’t invade any of its neighbors.
Why take the chance of remaining a pawn of Beijing when China’s economy is already dicey as Trump eyes a trade reckoning?
Agreeing to a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine may be a bitter pill for Putin to swallow, but standing down to ensure Russia’s independence and renewed relations with the West is Vlad’s smartest move.