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While the standings say the Jets are in last, they keep rolling up the firsts.
In October, when the Patriots beat them 25-22 in New England, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to lose a game in which they scored 20-plus points, didn’t commit a turnover and gave up less than 250 total yards. Before that day, teams with that stat profile had gone 750-0.
Now there’s new piece of ignominy: According to ESPN Stats & Info, they are the first team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in nine of their first 12 games and have a record of 3-9 or worse.
To put it in perspective, the Jets are 3-6 (33.3 percent) straight up in games in which they’ve been favored. Per Covers.com, favorites have an outright record of 135-60 (69.2 percent).
The main reason for this is the serious — probably unprecedented — overhype of this team. When Aaron Rodgers was deemed recovered from his Achilles tear, the bandwagon passed go and went directly to Super Bowl, skipping the necessary stops of respectability, a winning record and the first playoff berth in 14 years.
The Jets were scheduled for six prime-time games (one was since flexed out) and could be found on the left side of the betting line for quite a few games in which there was no justification for them to be favored — such as on the road against the Steelers and Cardinals. It seems so insane now.
Incredibly, they have been the favorite each of the past six games, going 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS as the season went from bad to worse to over to embarrassing to all-time low.
On Sunday, the Jets are — finally — underdogs of 6.5 points at Miami. I see a motivational mismatch. The Dolphins have won three of their last four games to get to 5-7 and will be playing for their postseason lives. The Jets have lost eight of their last nine and get a free weekend getaway to sun, 77 degrees and South Beach. The spread, while it looks large in the Post Line, is really just one scoring play.
The pick: Dolphins -6.5.
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Saints come in missing Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed and Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill, and list their three interior offensive linemen as questionable. They still have Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara to go against a Giants defense that will be without Dexter Lawrence.
Not only that, the Giants are the last winless home team in the league and have set an NFL record by going 11 games without an interception. And the forecast of 47 and partly sunny is fair enough for a southern dome team coming north in December.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS
The Jaguars perked up after Azeez Al-Shaair’s hit on a sliding Trevor Lawrence last week. Mac Jones came in and threw for 235 yards, two touchdowns and led a backdoor cover. Question is: Can you put any stock in two late scores given up by a team that was way ahead? Another question: Do you want to lay more than a field goal with a Titans team that’s 3-9?
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Yes, many Falcons games end up getting decided by less than this spread, but their last road game was a 38-6 loss in Denver, where the bottom fell out. The Dirty Birds have gone from 6-3 to 6-6 and scored an average of 12.0 ppg in the three losses with Kirk Cousins throwing six interceptions and zero touchdown passes in those games. He’d had designs on returning to Minnesota as a conquering hero but Brian Flores’ defense will have other ideas.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-12.5) over Carolina Panthers
Kudos to the Cats, who have salvaged Bryce Young’s career and covered four spreads in a row, including near-misses against the Chiefs and Bucs. Still, there’s two touchdowns worth of difference between these rosters. That’s if the Eagles are motivated to bring the hammer down — and they should be, with DeVonta Smith returning and the push to get Saquon Barkley to 2,000 rushing yards in high gear.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns
We got the full Jameis Winston Experience on Monday night — four touchdown passes and 497 passing yards when five and 499 would have been enough to cover in Denver. Instead, Winston threw an interception, his third of the game after two pick-sixes. You have to wonder how much the Browns have left emotionally at 3-9 on a short week with travel after such a disappointment. And now they face the 9-3 Steelers, who have had to wait only 2¹/₂ weeks to seek revenge for their 24-19 loss in Cleveland.
Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Bucs won by a big margin two weeks ago at the Giants but that’s been a rare occurrence since the beginning of October. While the Raiders are 2-10 and have become somewhat of an anonymous team, they have two recent covers against the Chiefs.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals had won and covered four in a row before disintegrating offensively in a 16-6 loss at Seattle two weeks ago. They then blew a 19-6 lead in Minnesota and lost, 23-22. So Kyler Murray’s at the controls of a healthy, angry team that also has a rapid revenge motive against a Seattle foe that had no business winning last week’s game at the Jets.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Bills had to take the cross-country trip after their 35-10 snow globe rout of the 49ers that was punctuated by Josh Allen’s MVP moment on the touchdown he both threw and scored. Are they ripe for a bit of a lull against a dangerous Rams team? Normally I’d say yes, but at 10-2, the Bills sit just a game behind the Chiefs for top seed — with the tiebreaker — and the potential to get the AFC title game in Orchard Park will keep them very much interested.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4) over Chicago Bears
The Bears are certainly a candidate for the new-coach bounce as Thomas Brown replaces Matt Eberflus after the disastrous ending in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Unlike Robert Saleh, who was more a scapegoat, a case can be made that Eberflus was the Bears’ biggest problem. However, there are injury concerns for their top weapons D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and the 49ers are far from out of it in the NFC West even at 5-7.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs have the best record in the NFL at 11-1 and their record against the spread is lower-middle of the pack at 5-7. The real alarms sound when you look at the last six games, where they are 5-1 SU and 0-6 ATS. Yes, Kansas City has not covered a spread since Oct. 20 (Week 7) — so long ago, the Mets played that night. Jim Harbaugh will look to turn this into a slugfest, and Andy Reid won’t have Harrison Butker around at the end.
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Monday
DALLAS COWBOYS (+5.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Cowboys have some extra rest after Thanksgiving and will throw at Joe Burrow the healthiest version of their defense they’ve had all season. DeMarcus Lawrence and Trevon Diggs could return to join the likes of Micah Parsons, Daron Bland and DeMarvion Overshown. The Bengals have lost four games in which they’ve scored 33 points or more.
Best bets: Cardinals, Chargers, Cowboys
Lock of the week: Cardinals (Locks 7-6 in 2024)
Last week: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Packers.