Jansen Project expected to come online in 2026
The building of what will be the world’s largest potash mine in Saskatchewan is ahead of schedule and expected to come online in 2026.
BHP Group Ltd.’s Jansen Project, which is located east of Saskatoon, will produce 8.5 million tonnes annually when fully operational.
Karina Gistelinck, asset president at BHP Potash, said 2024 has been a good year for the project.
“Earlier this year, in around August, we crossed the 50 per cent completion mark on Jansen 1, which is the first stage of the construction of the mine,” she said.
The mine will have a workforce of 900 people onsite when it becomes fully operational, with an additional 200 people working at the company’s offices in Saskatoon.
Progress on Jansen 1 has continued since this summer and it is now 60 per cent completed. Gistelinck said two shafts have been finished and a lot of work is being completed on surface structures, including the mill facilities and rail lines.
Progress is also being made at another site that will be important for the Jansen mine. Gistelinck said work is underway at a terminal facility at the Port of Vancouver, where BHP will be shipping much of its production from.
“We’re very well on track as well to refurbish an existing coal port into a potash port,” she said.
Gistelinck said work is also underway on Jansen 2, which had not been given the green light when construction started on Jansen 1. She said the additional capacity at Jansen’s second stage, which is currently five per cent complete, was given the go-ahead by BHP’s board of directors largely due to how well the first phase of the project went.
“Our board got really comfortable and got really excited about the prospect of building the largest mine here in Canada in potash,” she said.
BHP has budgeted $18 billion to build the new mine and is currently on budget. Gistelinck said the project has been able to fend off inflationary pressures because the company set up a joint venture with the contractor to oversee it, and also because the project’s supply chain has been properly managed.
“We have leveraged the BHP global procurement model as well as the very well-established local supply chain,” she said.
Gistelinck said the company has spent $4 billion on local procurement, which has helped keep costs down since it saves on transportation and logistics costs.
BHP is forecasting strong demand growth in the potash market of around one per cent to two per cent per year, driven by the world’s growing population along with an increase in the number of people living in urban centres.
Gistelinck said 85 per cent of the potash the company mines at Jansen will go on the global market, while the remaining 15 per cent will primarily go to the United States.
“We’ll target the key markets, such as Brazil, Southeast Asia, but also India, China and, where possible, also the more mature markets such as Europe,” she said.
Gistelinck said BHP does expect some market changes that could create challenges, such as supplies increasing from countries in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia.
To guard against this, she said the company is looking to control its production costs by using new technology at the Jansen facility.
“We will be the lowest-cost producer here in Canada,” she said.
Another major player in the potash market, the Mosaic Co. is also forecasting a good market. Jacob Bout, an analyst at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note in November that the company expects record shipments in 2025 of 72-74 million tonnes. He said the demand is primarily being driven by growth in Southeast Asia.
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