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The cliche says to throw out the records in rivalry games. But what do we do with betting trends? What happens when the trend is directly connected to the rivalry?
Michigan and Ohio State have gone over their posted total in 10 straight meetings. Keep in mind that this type of betting line is intended to be a 50/50 proposition, such as flipping a coin. In theory, 10 straight has odds of one in 1,024 — or 0.0977%.
As bettors analyzing Saturday’s Over/Under of 42.5, we must decide whether the trend has actual substance or just coincidence that defied the odds?
Coincidental would be the loose equivalent of walking by a roulette wheel and seeing red land for 10 straight spins.
Substance would reflect a narrative that applies solely because of the rivalry. Personally, I refuse to completely ignore betting trends but I do challenge myself to uncover tangible reasons they exist — and there is nothing here to insinuate anything is actionable.
We know rivalries magnify passion and desire but do they necessarily translate to more points? Does this specific game at the end of the season outperform the betting market that uses statistics from previous games that season? Sure, maybe a coach is more willing to open the playbook with trick plays or run up the score to potentially influence recruits, but then why don’t other rivalries have similar trends to the Over?
Given the sport’s turnover of players, I only care about the key individuals this particular year. Last week, Buckeyes coach Ryan Day opted to punch in an unnecessary touchdown against Indiana with 35 seconds remaining after TreVeyon Henderson intentionally fell down on the 1-yard line. Indiana was not using its final timeouts but Day went for the 23-point win instead of taking a knee.
A similar scenario could certainly present itself against Michigan, given Day has lost three straight rivalry games and enters this matchup as a 19.5-point favorite. After all, legendary Buckeyes coach Woody Hayes once attempted a two-point conversion when leading Michigan, 50-14. He later justified it with the infamous phrase, “because I couldn’t go for three.”
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The total of 42.5 does feel slightly low, given it’s the rivalry’s lowest since 2006, according to the Action Network. I coincidentally lean to the Over, but I will make a small play on the Buckeyes. Ultimately, when the favorite covers in this rivalry, it is the one with the future NFL players.
The Buckeyes undoubtedly have elite playmakers but they also might struggle in the trenches. I worry that Ohio State’s offense will stall too often against a physical Michigan defense, which makes covering a big spread tough. Plus, the Wolverines have shown some recent competency on offense but that came against weak competition.
Ultimately, I expect Michigan to be overwhelmed and for Day to show no mercy.