The Saskatchewan Party prevented a split in the right-wing vote, but that strategy appears to have cost it support in Regina and Saskatoon.
Perhaps only in Saskatchewan would a fifth-straight majority government by any party prompt so much analysis about what went wrong.
In the two provinces west of Saskatchewan, a centre-right split resulted in the party further to the right becoming dominant.
In Alberta, the former leader of the Wildrose Party, which formed because the governing Progressive Conservatives had become too centrist for some, is now leading the United Conservative Party.
Unlike in B.C. and Alberta, though, no serious splintering of the right-wing vote has happened here, despite obvious attempts. A determined effort by upstart parties to gain traction failed resoundingly.
Actually, United did worse last month than Buffalo did in 2020. Buffalo finished second in four races in its electoral debut; United finished second in zero and none were close.
And the consternation over United splitting the vote in the handful of seats where the party fielded candidates in Regina and Saskatoon failed to materialize; none of those races were won solely because United syphoned off right-wing votes.
Only in Regina Wascana Plains did the combined vote for the Saskatchewan Party, United and Progressive Conservative candidates add up to more than the winning NDP candidate.
Buffalo shocked by getting the third-most votes in 2020 despite running only 17 candidates. United also placed third in total votes with 31 candidates, but finished with a lower average vote per seat (581) than Buffalo in 2020 (665).
You can view Moe as a brilliant strategist for shifting his party to the right to prevent the growth of a viable alternative, or as a panic-stricken alarmist who needlessly alienated voters in Regina and Saskatoon with exaggerated reactions like the pronoun mandate.
Grant Devine’s PCs lost their grip in the largest cities in the 1986 election — even though that meant four seats compared to one for Moe — and it proved to be a prelude to the party’s virtual extinction.
Likewise, Moe’s minor miracle in keeping Saskatchewan’s right dominant and united may be only a fleeting mirage.
Phil Tank is the digital opinion editor at the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
Our websites are your destination for up-to-the-minute Saskatchewan news, so make sure to bookmark thestarphoenix.com and leaderpost.com. For Regina Leader-Post newsletters click here; for Saskatoon StarPhoenix newsletters click here