USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con
A common pitfall for novice bettors is to assume repeat performances, often ignoring the potential variances of a particular game.
For example, not many anticipated the Dallas Cowboys would compete with the Washington Commanders on Sunday, let alone win as a 10.5-point underdog.
But Dallas snapped its five-game losing streak and looked much better than its back-to-back blowouts suggested.
However, sometimes previous games provide a window into how teams might specifically match up with one another.
The Toronto Raptors visit the Detroit Pistons on Monday in a rematch of a 99-95 Detroit win from 10 days prior.
The over/under is 220.5, and I anticipate another low-scoring performance and thus am betting the under.
While I do expect the teams to shoot a little better than their combined 38.5% from the previous meeting, I still think the total is too high.
The main reason is Pistons star Cade Cunningham listed as doubtful and unlikely to play. He leads the team in scoring and assists, and they lack the depth to replace his production.
Jaden Ivey will now serve as the main point guard but he is more of a shoot-first guard. Thus, I also am betting under 5.5 assists for Ivey. On Saturday, Ivey only mustered four assists in Cunningham’s absence while finishing with a team-high 16 field goal attempts and six free throws.
He has elite speed and athleticism and prioritizes attacking the rim over distribution. He’s also a ball hawk without Cunningham and grabbed seven rebounds so I also played over 4.5 rebounds at +115 odds.
Another prop also has my attention: Raptors center Jakob Poeltl has grabbed at least 12 rebounds in five straight games, including 18 in the previous meeting with Detroit.
I like over 11.5 rebounds at +110 odds with the rationale of my expecting the Pistons likely struggling to generate quality shot attempts and enabling the seven-footer numerous defensive rebounding opportunities.
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The few times Poeltl has finished with less than 12 rebounds is when he opposes an elite rebounder or dominant big man.
The last five times this occurred, Toronto faced Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Domantas Sabonis (twice) and Nikola Jokic. Detroit’s Jalen Duren simply does not measure up to this All-Stars.
PICKS: Under 220.5 (-110, ESPN BET) | Jaden Ivey under 5.5 assists (-140, Bet365) | Jakob Poeltl over 11.5 rebounds (+110, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the sports betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.