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Penn State bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Ohio State with dominant wins over Washington and Purdue by a combined 68 points.
The Nittany Lions are rolling into this matchup against Minnesota, which is coming off its bye week after a loss to Rutgers.
The Golden Gophers have already locked up a bowl game spot, but they will look to play spoiler here.
Where does the advantage lie in this Big Ten matchup? Let’s dive into the numbers and find out.
Penn State vs. Minnesota odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | -11.5 (-110) | -490 | o45.5 (-108) |
| Minnesota | +11.5 (-110) | +365 | u45.5 (-112) |
When Penn State has the ball
Penn State boasts one of the most consistent offenses in the country, ranking top eight in success rate in both the pass and run games.
Drew Allar’s efficiency has improved under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, as he’s jumped from 6.8 YPA to 9.8.
However, Penn Sate’s wide receiver room lacks elite explosiveness, and Minnesota ranks 23rd in PFF’s coverage grades.
The Gophers must always stay conscious of where tight end Tyler Warren is. He’s arguably the most versatile offensive talent in the country, posting 67 catches for 808 yards and five touchdowns, along with 157 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
The Nittany Lions also boast a nasty running back duo with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. However, the Gophers offer far more pushback against the run than the opponents they’ve seen recently, thanks to a stout run-stop unit led by standout linebacker Cody Lindenberg.
First-year Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has done an excellent job with this Gophers group that ranks 11th in the FBS in early downs EPA/play allowed. This is arguably the best non-Ohio State defense that Penn State has seen all season.
When Minnesota has the ball
The Golden Gophers haven’t been able to run the ball all year, ranking 107th in rushing success rate. That won’t change here against the Penn State defense, which ranks fifth in EPA/rush allowed. However, they’re well aware of that deficiency, as they rank 113th in rush play rate and have leaned into more of an Air Raid offense with quarterback Max Brosmer.
After transferring from New Hampshire before the season, Brosmer has led an efficient passing offense that ranks top 50 in passing success rate. Borsmer rarely makes mistakes, and he has just a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate under pressure, which is essential against a lights-out Penn State pass rush.
The Nittany Lions have an excellent secondary, ranking 17th in PFF’s coverage grades, led by breakthrough cornerback A.J. Harris.
It will be fascinating to see if he’s matched up with wide receiver Daniel Jackson on Saturday, who leads the Gophers with 63 catches for 712 yards this season.
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Penn State vs. Minnesota pick
According to Action Labs, P.J. Fleck has an 11-5 against the spread (ATS) record (68.8%) when his team has 10-plus days between games, which doesn’t include his 5-0 record in bowl games.
This Minnesota coaching staff has done an excellent job all season and will have a great game plan for a Penn State team that could get caught in a sleepy spot.
The Gophers can limit Penn State’s number of possessions through methodical drives and a lack of turnovers, and in a game between two excellent defenses, I’ll happily take the points with the home dog coming off a bye week.
BEST BET: Minnesota +11.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.