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As much as Deion Sanders and Co. have impressed this year, I’m still not sold on the Buffaloes.
My biggest issue is that the offensive isn’t good.
Shedeur Sanders is constantly running for his life, and Colorado ranks 104th nationally in sack rate allowed (8 percent).
Of greater importance to this matchup is that the Buffaloes can’t run the ball behind their lousy front five — they rank 110th nationally in EPA per Rush and seventh in pass play rate (60%).
That bodes well for Kansas.
The Jayhawks’ undersized front seven is vulnerable against the rush (125th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed).
Nevertheless, the defense is OK at defending the pass behind the rock-solid cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas’ offense has caught fire now that Jalon Daniels is healthy.
The Jayhawks had a string of unlucky losses in the early season, but they’ve won three of their past four games, dropping over 40 points on Iowa State and Houston during the stretch.
Colorado’s rush defense is merely average (66th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed), and the Jayhawks boast a top-10 rushing offense behind the dual-threat Daniels and star running back Devin Neal.
This is a good matchup for the up-and-coming Jayhawks, and it appears the Buffaloes are overvalued — four of their six Big 12 wins have come against teams with losing league records.
Pick: Kansas +3.
Northwestern (+10.5) over MICHIGAN
Michigan’s passing attack has looked slightly better since the Wolverines started playing Davis Warren again.
The senior can complete almost 60% of his passes and tends to keep the ball out of harm’s way with a low average depth of target.
Still, the Wolverines’ aerial attack is among the worst in college football.
They’re still overly reliant on the rushing attack, ranking 27th nationally in rush play rate (58%).
That doesn’t bode well against Northwestern, which boasts a horrific secondary but a talented front seven that ranks in the top 15 nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
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I don’t know how Northwestern scores, but the Wildcats defense can keep it competitive, and catching over 10 points in a points-at-a-premium, low-scoring, rush-heavy Big 10 battle is good value.
For what it’s worth, only one of Michigan’s five wins has come by more than 10 points, and road underdogs in conference play with totals under 45 points have gone 374-294-18 against the spread since 2005.
Also, could Michigan be looking ahead to next week’s rivalry game with Ohio State?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them look unprepared this Saturday at home against a traditionally lame-duck Northwestern program.
Last week: 1-2. Notre Dame (L), Kansas State (L), Kansas (W).
2024 season: 20-14.
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, he’s a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and any home underdog. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot on Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.