It’s part of a year-long trend of higher temperatures, an Environment Canada meteorologist says, but a white Christmas is still possible.
No snow has fallen on the city yet this season, and it’s beginning to look a lot like Montreal won’t get any at all this November. Instead, this month will likely mark the 12th in a row of higher temperatures in the city compared to the 30-year average, Environment Canada said Thursday. That explains why we’re so far from November’s average snowfall of 16 centimetres, and why the first significant snowfall of the season could very well be late.
“If you have felt that it’s been warmer than normal and with less snow than normal, I can indeed confirm that’s the case,” said meteorologist Gina Ressler. “This is mostly due to the warm autumn we’ve had. Temperatures so far this autumn have been abnormally mild, and this has just resulted in lack of snow cover for many places” in Quebec and Canada.
There is some indication that the end of November and start of December will experience a push of cold air across the southern part of Quebec, “so we probably will get a taste of more winter-like temperatures for the beginning of December,” Ressler said, but it’s unclear if that will lead to any snow.
“At least for kind of the remainder of this week and into the weekend, temperatures do seem too mild to get any appreciable snow, and I think it’s too soon to say for next week,” Ressler said. “But it’s definitely something that I know we’ll all be watching out for.”
Ressler said the current 12-month temperature trend could possibly mean December will be warmer than average, too.
“These kinds of forecasts do have a lot of uncertainty, but basically what I’m saying is the trend could continue,” she said.
Environment Canada will release its forecast for the rest of the winter season at the beginning of December, using longer-term models that consider ocean patterns and other data for predictions, Ressler said.
Speaking about the implications of the past year of warmer weather in terms of climate change, Ressler said it’s normal to have fluctuations, with some seasons being warmer than average and others being colder, “but I think what we can say … is having these milder winters or milder autumns and having this lack of snowfall is becoming more likely in a warming climate.”
If you’re worried the lack of snow this month means the city is doomed to experience a green Christmas this year, don’t panic: there’s still plenty of time for snow to fall and accumulate before then.
“Honestly, all you need is one good snowstorm,” Ressler said. “You just need one appreciable snowfall leading up to Christmas to give yourself a white Christmas.”