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Week 12 in the NFL kicks off with a divisional clash Thursday night as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The weather could be an issue with an expected wintry mix of rain, snow and wind gusts of up to 20 mph.
Thus, when putting together our same-game parlays, it makes sense to consider the running game for both teams as part of our decision-making.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Steelers vs. Browns same-game parlay
Najee Harris Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-130)
While quarterback Russell Wilson has done a decent job since coming into the starting lineup, the Steelers haven’t exactly let him loose.
Considering that Pittsburgh has the second-lowest pass-play rate in the league at 47.6%, Harris should continue to get his share of touches, especially given the weather conditions.
Attacking Cleveland on the ground makes sense, as it ranks 27th in opponent yards per carry (4.8).
Harris has exceeded 17.5 rushing attempts in the last four games and the weather conditions bode well for him to have a heavy workload.
Jaylen Warren 40+ rushing yards (+105)
Although Harris is the lead back for the Steelers, Warren remains firmly in their plans to get his share of carries.
Warren is also getting more carries because the Steelers call fewer designed quarterback runs for Wilson than when Justin Fields was under center.
The backup running back has registered at least nine carries in his last four games.
Pittsburgh’s dual-rushing attack could wear down a Browns defense that got gashed for 214 yards on the ground on Sunday against the Saints.
Lastly, Warren has exceeded this yardage in his last five games against opponents ranked in the bottom 10 of rushing yards allowed.
ALT total Under 43 points (-264)
After seeing a massive move on the Under from 43.5 to 37, I prefer to add a bit of insurance by playing an alternate total at 43.
While the move likely involves the weather report, it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh has a top-10 defense and a bottom-10 offense.
Thus, the Steelers fit the profile of the team you want if you’re targeting a play on the Under.
When you factor in that this is a divisional game in primetime, points could undoubtedly be at a premium.
Steelers moneyline (-192)
Cleveland somehow lost, 35-14, to New Orleans despite having a plus-two turnover margin and racking up 443 total yards.
The issue for the Browns is they continue to struggle on third down, converting just three of their 13 opportunities.
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What must have been particularly frustrating is that it’s not like New Orleans has a juggernaut defense, as it ranks 22nd in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
Those woes will likely continue against the Steelers, who rank ninth with an opponent third-down conversion rate of 35%.
Stream the game live on Thursday night on Amazon Prime Video
Offensively, the Browns’ third down conversion rate of 28.2% is the worst in the league.
While Jameis Winston gave the Browns a bit of a boost when he stepped in at quarterback for the injured Deshaun Watson, this team is mired in turmoil with a head coach firmly on the hot seat and players making “business decisions” to sit out games.
At this point, it’s fair to question the Browns’ motivation the rest of the way.
Steelers vs. Brown same-game parlay picks (+430, DraftKings)
- Najee Harris Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-130)
- Jaylen Warren 40+ rushing yards (+105)
- ALT total Under 43 points (-264)
- Steelers moneyline (-192)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.