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Ohio is one of three teams tied at the top of the MAC standings with a 5-1 conference record, along with Bowling Green and Miami (Ohio).
However, Toledo still has a great chance to make the conference title game with a win on Wednesday.
Ohio vs. Toledo prediction
The Bobcats had some of the worst returning production marks in the country, but coach Tim Albin has led his team to impressive success, particularly on the defensive end.
Ohio ranks 53rd in overall defensive success rate, especially excelling against the run, where it sits 23rd in EPA/rush allowed.
Toledo has struggled to establish a ground game this season, ranking 128th in EPA/rush and 105th in early down EPA/play.
If the Rockets can’t find rushing success, their offense will fall on Tucker Gleason’s arm against a Bobcats pass defense ranked just 77th by EPA/dropback.
The Rockets often depend on passing explosives to generate offensive production, and the Bobcats defense needs to be sound in coverage here.
It’s worth noting that Gleason is still overdue for turnover regression. He has 14 turnover-worthy plays but just seven interceptions this year.
Meanwhile, Ohio’s offense is highly dependent on running back Anthony Tyus.
Still, it could be tough sledding against a Toledo defense ranked top 25 in EPA/rush allowed and PFF’s tackling grades.
If Parker Navarro is asked to shoulder a heavier burden as a passer, I don’t have much confidence in him succeeding against Toledo’s 12th-ranked coverage unit.
Ohio has benefited from an easy conference schedule, playing four of the bottom five teams in the MAC standings.
While I have issues with Toledo overall, the Rockets still show a clear advantage in this game, and I see value in their spread under a field goal.
Recommendation: Toledo -1.5 (-110, ESPN BET).
Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan prediction
First-year coach Pete Lembo has done an excellent job of making Buffalo competitive this season after a complete rebuild on both sides of the ball.
The Bulls are surprisingly 4-2 in conference play and enter this game on the heels of an overtime win over Ball State.
However, they were relatively fortunate to win that game — Ball State averaged 7.45 yards per play (86th percentile) to Buffalo’s 5.44 (39th).
The Bulls have a limited offensive attack, ranking outside the top 110 teams in EPA/pass and passing success rate.
CJ Ogbonna is a dual-threat quarterback with deep-ball capability, but he’s not consistent as a passer.
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I don’t trust him to consistently take advantage of Eastern Michigan’s 127th-ranked coverage unit. The Eagles have a solid run defense, ranking top-50 in EPA/rush allowed and PFF’s tackling grades.
You won’t confuse Eastern Michigan’s offense with a record-breaking unit, but Buffalo transfer quarterback Cole Snyder has given the passing attack some life.
The Bulls rank just 99th in EPA/pass allowed this season, and I’d look for Oran Singleton to have a strong game with three straight 70+ yard outings.
I don’t see much value on the side or total in this game.
This one likely comes down to whether or not Ogbonna connects on a couple of deep balls.
Potential weather in this game would likely benefit the Eagles with the superior run defense, so keep an eye on the forecast — we could see heavy wind and rain in Ypsilanti on Wednesday.
Recommendation: Lean Eastern Michigan -1 (-110, Fanatics).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.