Betting on the NFL requires various hats, ranging from talent evaluator to amateur psychologist. But even the most experienced experts encounter situations that present foreign territory.
We have a unique situation for “Monday Night Football.”
On one sideline is the 3-6 Dallas Cowboys, who are relegated to a backup quarterback and the spoiler role, coming off a lopsided loss. They host the Houston Texans, who just blew a 23-7 halftime lead, despite five interceptions.
As we all know, the NFL is a week-to-week league. And it accentuates the betting adage that one must forget what they last saw in order to wager successfully. With that being said, teams also hit rough stretches and certain seasons can spiral following an injury.
“You want to get a market number up there and then let the more respected bettors guide you. Respected is the keyword. We had groups that we respect play Dallas last week and lost,” Las Vegas oddsmaker and SuperBook executive director John Murray told Only Players, referencing the Cowboys’ five turnovers in a 34-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. “Just because they’re respected, it doesn’t mean they’re going to win.”
An oddsmaker once told me that the house typically hates injuries. They have a solid grasp of all teams at full strength and can make a point spread for any NFL game in their sleep. However, no one knows the true value of a backup quarterback or other key injuries.
“I thought Cooper Rush could be serviceable. But I was basing that on his performances when Dallas had a better supporting cast around him,” Murray said, alluding to his 5-1 record as a starter in 2021 and 2022 when the Cowboys won 12 games each season. “Rush was able to fill in the blanks and play well. But they don’t have that team now. There is a bigger drop-off than I thought.”
The Texans opened as seven-point road favorites last Sunday and the point spread reached as high as 7.5 but has settled back at seven points. Two oddsmakers told me the line would be 3.5 points, if Prescott were still healthy.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
“Pro athletes have a lot of pride when the media is killing a team like the Cowboys. Right now, my instinct is to play that side. For example, look at the Bears competing against the Packers (on Sunday),” professional bettor Ron Boyles told Only Players via text message. “The pain for the Texans, coming off a tough loss to Detroit, could linger. Not sure I am going to bet it but I can only look at Dallas +7.5.”
Personally, I think the Texans cover. Dallas had major issues prior to losing its quarterback. They lack any semblance of a running game, averaging 3.8 yards per carry (fourth-worst), and the defense ranks in the bottom third in almost all categories. Plus, Houston is a much better team with wide receiver Nico Collins, who is expected to return from injury.
PICK: Texans -7 (-110, ESPN BET)