SAN ANTONIO — For a team viewed as taking a giant step forward in 2024, the Mets sure have to take a giant step forward this offseason to, well, take a giant step forward.
Yep, even I am exhausted writing that sentence, so I can imagine how you feel.
But really, the Mets squad that elated their fan base from June onward is gone. The Mets have 14 free agents — four more than any of the other 12 playoff teams. They have to rebuild their rotation and bullpen, re-sign or replace the power of Pete Alonso and — among other items — determine if Jose Iglesias was a one-year O-M-G feel-good story.
“Clearly, we are going to have significant roster turnover,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said. “It’s going to look different next year. The formula, frankly, is going to be different every single year. It’s highlighted this year because we have a number of free agents, but it is going to be a different mix every single year. That’s also an opportunity for us. It’s an opportunity to continue to get better, to continue to round out our team in ways we think are productive.”
The reason to feel that the Mets will capably do this is due to what is not changing. You can argue that when it comes to owner (Steve Cohen), head of baseball operations (Stearns) and manager (Carlos Mendoza), the organization has not been this well synched and covered since the late 1960s with Joan Payson, Johnny Murphy and Gil Hodges.
Cohen has shown he will invest what is necessary to be Dodgers East and not the other team in town to the Yankees. Stearns did in his first season with the Mets what he annually did on much stricter budgets with the Brewers — patiently and perceptively assemble a contender. And when the Baseball Writers Association of America announces its three awards finalist in each category Monday, I suspect Mendoza will be among them for NL Manager of the Year. If Mendoza were a stock, you’d buy it after watching his steady leadership through a dim first two months and then seeing his team steadily perform better and with more confidence as the season progressed.
Both Stearns and Mendoza cited a cornerstone established in their first Mets season of not just players, but people/process/infrastructure that should enable stability and success going forward and provide, in Stearns’ words, “a foundation in terms of what our expectations are.”
And, no doubt, expectations have climbed. It feels like 2024 was akin to what the Knicks did the past two seasons when competent leadership resulted in even modest playoff success — and a fan base starved for both elements saw both as more than enough to celebrate. But now the Knicks have pushed big chips in and are going for it, and the expectations are way more than a noble second-round playoff exit.
“Expectations are a good thing,” Stearns said. “If people are expecting more out of our organization, I’ll take that every single time versus the opposite.”
The expectations only are going to heighten. Because the unanimous belief of more than a dozen outside team officials and agents spoken to at the GM meetings is that Cohen is just about to support a mammoth financial offseason outlay centered around Juan Soto, but one that will not stop there whether or not the Mets land the generational hitter.
Yet, in some ways, the Mets will be blessed even while spending more to have as good a transactional offseason this year — particularly when it comes to starting pitching — as last, when they emphasized short-term deals designed to avoid cluttering future rosters and payrolls. That strategy was built to be bolder in a moment like now. For the Mets now know they have the right baseball leader in Stearns and manager in Mendoza. Francisco Lindor is an in-his-prime elite player, Mark Vientos does not feel like a one-year fluke and Francisco Alvarez has the promise of so much more offense.
Stearns believes Kodai Senga, after just one 2024 regular-season start, will have a standard offseason and be ready for spring training. Patience with the system not only saw the blossoming of previously stalled prospects headed by Vientos, but also David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Jose Butto for the pitching staff. The Mets believe that prospects Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean have a chance to be impact pitchers and that there is more upside from Blade Tidwell.
The Mets placed the qualifying offer on their greatest success stories from last offseason, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. It is possible that Severino accepts, and also that the Mets work out a longer deal with one or the other. Or go to the top of the market for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and/or Blake Snell. Or offer the short-term, rebuild value type deal that they struck with Manaea and Severino to Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler or Matt Boyd.
Cohen’s largesse — in cash and belief in what the Mets can become — allows Stearns to venture aggressively and often into any market. The challenge now is picking the right pieces to assure last season was more than a feel-good moment.
“That’s my job,” Stearns said. “So, no, I don’t necessarily feel pressure. I have confidence in our group that’s doing the work. I have confidence in our ability to identify players and pitchers that we think are going to help us. We’re not going to bat 1.000. We didn’t last off season [when Adrian Houser, for example, was also obtained for the rotation]. But I think by and large, we’ll be able to identify the right guys and hopefully put them into the best position.”
That would be a true giant step forward.