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Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is in his first season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide.
New England Patriots (+3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS
There’s an insane stat that circulated earlier this year regarding teams that play the Lions and how they fare in their next game.
The Lions’ first six opponents went 0-6 after playing Dan Campbell’s squad, and that includes Dallas even having a week to recover before playing the 49ers last week.
Four of those teams have lost by double digits in their ensuing game.
Guess who played the Lions last week? The lowly Titans.
Tennessee should not be favored by 3.5 against anyone, and the Patriots are coming off an inspiring home win against the Jets.
In what should be a low-scoring game, the hook and the Campbell effect have us willing to back the Patriots on the road in this AFC battle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs burned us previously when betting against them as a large home Monday night favorite against the Saints, but we’ll try again here with the Buccaneers.
Huge favorites have been awful this season, and the Buccaneers, despite losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, still can score some points, tallying 26 in last week’s home loss to the Falcons.
Kansas City’s offense has not really broken out this season and doesn’t seem primed to score in the 30-40 range like the Falcons and Ravens did in the past two weeks against Tampa Bay.
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Getting nine points also allows the opportunity for a backdoor cover, and Kansas City has won just two of its seven games by at least 10 points.
In a year when most big favorites have flopped, go with the week’s biggest underdog to keep it close.
Last week: 0-2. Jets (L), Giants (L)
Season: 4-12.