Vice President Kamala Harris thinks she can win the election on an abortion rights message. Former President Trump thinks he can win on immigration.
In Arizona, they’ll find out who was right.
None of the seven swing states puts the two campaigns’ top issues in such stark relief. Arizona is the only border state among the battlegrounds and the only one where abortion access is on the ballot as a potential amendment to the state Constitution.
Trump and Harris have been emphasizing those messages as they made a final swing through the West last week.
Trump found an eager audience for his tough border talk at an event with conservative broadcaster Tucker Carlson in Glendale on Thursday, telling a crowd of roaring supporters that he considered immigration “the single biggest issue.”
“They were destroying this country at the border, I mean millions and millions of people. I’m sure we have some in here tonight with us,” Trump said as the audience rippled with laughter. “You know, murderers and drug dealers, prisoners.”
Meanwhile, at an event the same day just six miles away in Phoenix, Harris hammered the issue of abortion. For decades, abortion motivated conservative Republicans to the polls, but after the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion, it is now widely credited with helping Democrats notch wins in the 2022 midterms.
In Arizona, the issue is on the ballot in the form of Proposition 139, which would enshrine the right to the procedure in the Arizona Constitution.
Harris highlighted the measure, telling Arizona voters at the Talking Stick Resort Amphitheatre that “Arizona, to protect your rights to make your own healthcare decisions, I would recommend you vote yes on Proposition 139. And make sure you vote up and down the ballot to truly protect that right.”
Arizona’s Republican-led state Legislature enacted a 15-week abortion ban, which has been in place since Roe was overturned. The law received unusual attention in the last year after the state Supreme Court ruled that it conflicted with a near-total abortion ban that had been on the books since 1864.
The Legislature ultimately repealed the 1864 law, leaving the 15-week ban in place. But not before drawing national media attention, rallying passionate activists on both sides of the issue and jeopardizing the political futures of several state justices and legislators.
Cathi Herrod, president of the Center for Arizona Policy, is leading the campaign against Proposition 139, with the message that it goes “too far.”
“That is the battle of our time, on whether we’re going to protect precious unborn babies and their mothers, or whether we’re going to be an abortion capital of this country,” Herrod said at a “know your ballot” event at the Dream City Church in September.
By several counts, momentum is on the abortion-rights side. One in five registered voters in Arizona signed the petition to put Proposition 139 on the ballot, said Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, an abortion rights group. A New York Times / Siena College poll from late September found that 58% of likely voters in Arizona supported the measure, making it more popular in the state than either presidential candidate.
Hall said that she’s heard from some grassroots organizers in Arizona who open their conversation with voters by talking about the abortion measure, before pivoting to other topics.
“It is easier to get people to talk to them about abortion than saying, ‘Who is it you vote for, for president?’” she said.
Voter registration in Arizona is split almost neatly into thirds — 36% Republican, 29% Democrat and 34% other — making a toss-up of nearly every one of the myriad races on this year’s ballot.
There’s the closely watched Senate race, which pits Kari Lake, a Trump-aligned Republican and former news broadcaster who lost the 2022 race for governor, against Ruben Gallego, a Democratic congressman and Marine Corps veteran.
There are three competitive congressional races, according to the Cook Political Report, which monitors swing districts nationwide.
There are the legislative races that could tip the balance of the Legislature, where Republicans hold a narrow majority in both chambers.
And, of course, there’s the presidential race, which was decided in Arizona by just over 10,000 votes in 2020.
The election is inescapable in Phoenix, as nearly every street corner is dominated by a colorful collection of campaign signs of every political stripe. At a Scottsdale voting center on Wednesday, incoming voters were greeted by activists from both parties who flanked the parking lot entrance — a conservative in a red shirt on the right and two progressives in blue on the left.
Harris’ campaign has targeted several of Arizona’s niche demographic groups — such as Mormons and Native Americans — whose small margins could swing the state. She has also courted prominent Arizona Republicans, such as former Sen. Jeff Flake, who at a news conference Wednesday said he supported Harris “not in spite of being a conservative Republican, but because of [it].”
A passerby threw a comment in Flake’s direction: “RINO!” — short for “Republican in name only.”
In Arizona, Trump has relied on Turning Point USA, the organization founded by conservative podcaster and provocateur Charlie Kirk, who focuses on turning out low-propensity voters such as college students.
His organization recently held its 25th college campus voter outreach event, Kirk said at the Trump rally on Thursday. He urged attendees to don a MAGA hat and go into a Denny’s. “People will compliment,” he said, advising they respond with a question: “Have you voted?”
“I want you to re-create the anger that you felt” after the 2020 election, Kirk told the crowd. “I want you to re-create that pit in the stomach for those of you that lived here your whole life and you thought this state would never, ever, ever send its votes to a Democrat as president.”
The Republican Party nationwide has been pushing early voting, countering Trump’s messaging in 2020 when he questioned the security of mail-in ballots. Democrats led in early and mail-in voting that year. This year, Republicans in Arizona are leading early voting, according to the Arizona Republic.
This election is putting Arizona’s embattled election system again in the spotlight. Maricopa County election officials withstood scalding attacks in 2020, a barrage of court cases and persistent criticism from the right — despite attempts from election officials of both parties to quell distrust and make the elections process more transparent.
An Arizona voter roll discrepancy, discovered just weeks ago, further threatened to sow distrust in this year’s election. Election officials found that roughly 98,000 people had been wrongly marked in their system as having provided proof of citizenship — a requirement to vote in Arizona (every other state requires a pledge of citizenship under penalty of perjury).
Secretary of State Adrian Fontes called the chances of noncitizens being on the voter rolls “vanishingly rare.” The state’s Supreme Court ruled that the voters could cast full ballots.
Elections officials in Arizona have been elevated to heroes or villains, depending on whom you ask. The stakes of Arizona’s election are evident at the Maricopa County Ballot Tabulating Center, where the ballot count is expected to last days. Two layers of security fencing surround the building, as well as metal detectors and even rooftop snipers.
Days before Nov. 5, some Republican voters are already wary of the results.
Ron, a Phoenix voter who declined to give his last name, said his polling place did not have enough printer paper in 2020, which was inconvenient for voters and caused some to leave early. The 60-year-old said he voted early this year because he “didn’t want to get caught up in the shenanigans that possibly could happen on that day, computer-wise.”
“It doesn’t matter who wins or loses, the other side is always, always, always going to contest the election,” he said.
Times staff writer Noah Bierman in Washington contributed to this report.