Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
Can the Yankees end up on the right side of World Series history, 20 years after their 3-0 collapse against the Boston Red Sox?
Right now, it feels difficult to imagine. Ever since Freddie Freeman’s walk-off Grand Slam in Game 1, their series with the Dodgers hasn’t felt particularly close.
It takes just one game to get things reversed, and the Yankees are -146 favorites at FanDuel in Game 4 and would be favored again in Game 5 with Gerrit Cole on the mound.
Luis Gil will make the start for the Yankees on Tuesday night, while the Dodgers will throw a bullpen game.
Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 4 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -146 | -1.5 (+134) | o8.5 (-114) |
| Dodgers | +124 | +1.5 (-162) | u8.5 (-106) |
Gil, who returned from a 20-day layoff in Game 4 of the ALCS, will be coming off an 11-day layoff.
He has struggled with command at times in his career, and that was the case early on against Cleveland before settling into a respectable outing.
If Gil struggles to spot his pitches early on, a matchup versus a Dodgers side displaying elite plate discipline in the postseason could be a full-blown disaster.
Still, there are some positives for Gil entering this matchup.
The right-hander holds strong underlying numbers at Yankee Stadium this season. He’s been hard-hit just 28.3% of the time, allowing an average of just .184. His K-BB% of 17.1 and xFIP of 4.13 are both better than his marks on the road. His stuff grades out well (110 Stuff+), and he can be effective pitching in the zone, which is important against this Dodgers lineup.
It’s hard to say there’s no pressure on Gil here, but in the eyes of many, this series is all but over. He’s a rookie thrown into a brutal spot at home, and maybe that could help get him into a good head space.
Gil could also benefit from a favorable strike zone with Doug Eddings behind home plate. In games umpired by Eddings, the under holds a +4.2% ROI and are +25.3 units.
There aren’t really soft arms in the Dodgers bullpen, but some of the more dominant ones (Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda) have all thrown in each game of this series.
Long relievers Landon Knack and Brent Honeywell, who will likely factor in early in Tuesday’s matchup, hold xERAs of 3.78 and 5.03, respectively, this season.
This game looks like a good spot to target some relatively extreme outcomes.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gil blow up early and the Dodgers cruise to an eighth World Series title.
If he is on, however, his arsenal suggests a dominant outing is realistic, and he has offered some spectacular performances at Yankee Stadium this season.
If the Yankees can manage an early lead, Dave Roberts will deploy his less-dominant relievers, and maybe we will see the Yankees push back with a comfortable win of their own.
Follow The Post’s coverage of the Yankees in the postseason:
- Heyman: Yankees crumbling in World Series raises uncomfortable questions
- Yankees decide on Game 4 starter after Gerrit Cole hesitance
- Sherman: Dodgers exposing the Yankees in every way
- Vaccaro: Yankees only have one hope to pull off Red Sox-like miracle
At +500 odds, I see value in targeting Gil to have a strong showing and record a win. While he hasn’t pitched out of the fifth inning in a long time, he has no restrictions, and the Yankees are equally large favorites to win the first five innings at -150 odds.
In a similar vein, I see value in backing the Yankees to cover the run line at +136 odds at DraftKings.
I’m also betting the Dodgers to win this series, 4-2, at +500 odds.
If the Yankees can find a way in this matchup as they are favored to do, you would have to like their chances at home in Game 5 with Cole on the mound, before needing to figure out Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 6.
Best bets: Luis Gil to record a win +500 (bet365) | Yankees -1.5 (+136, DraftKings) | Dodgers to win series 4-2 (+500, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.