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Former President Donald Trump is slated to win the Arab-American Muslim voteand the ultra-Orthodox Jewish vote next week, if you believe the polls.
Two groups that can’t make peace in the Middle East are coming together to defeat Kamala Harris.
While Orthodox Jews have thrown their support to Republicans in the past, especially since 2008, the Muslim vote has been a staple of the Democratic Party since George W. Bush launched the war in Iraq.
In 2000, an estimated70% of Muslims nationwide voted for the Republican Bush, but by the following election that number reversed — and 70% supported Bush’s Democrat challenger, John Kerry.
By 2008, Muslims supported Democrats more than any group except black Americans: 86% of Muslims voted for Barack Obama, compared to95% of black voters.
Democrats believed that this group was part of their permanent rainbow coalition that would only grow — as high birth rates and immigration increased their share of the US population, especially in swing states like Michigan, Georgia, Maine and Minnesota.
So it came as a complete shock to them last week when an Arab News/YouGov poll found Arab Americans supporting Trump over Harris by 45% to 43%.
Making matters worse for Democrats, on Saturday eight prominent Muslim leaders joined Trump onstage at a rally in Novi, Mich., to give him their full-throated endorsement — a huge development in a crucial swing state that’s home to about 400,000 Arab Americans.
That followed influentialendorsements from the Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, Mich., and from the Pakistani American Public Affairs Committee — and the public refusal of Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Mich., to sign on to Harris’ campaign.
Blame, in part, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ disastrous foreign policy, specifically regarding Israel and Gaza, for the huge shift.
From Vladimir Putin to the mullahs of Iran, foreign adversaries have acted increasingly brazen since Trump left office, knowing that the weak Biden occupied the White House.
In the Middle East particularly, Biden and Harris have tried to have their cake and eat it.
They condemned the terrorist attacks of Oct. 7, but also warned Israel against sending the IDF into Rafah. They’ve demanded a cease-fire, but have taken no firm steps to secure one.
Their inaction in the face of mounting civilian casualties has outraged Muslim Americans, who find themselves increasingly divorced from the mainstream Democratic Party.
While some progressive Muslims have been driven toward Green Party candidate Jill Stein, those who are more socially conservative are moving toward Trump as the pro-peace candidate.
Last week UFC fighters Justin Gaethje, Beneil Dariush and Henry Cejudo campaigned for Trump in Warren, Mich., telling voters there he’ll bring peace to the Middle East.
“I saw the things [Trump] did in the Middle East, where he stopped ISIS, where he stopped bombing just random people like [former President Barack] Obama was doing,” Dariush told the crowd.
Other Muslim Americans are looking to Trump because of the state of the economy.
CNN analyst Reena Ninan said on-air this month that she knew of not a single Arab American business owner willing to support Harris.
Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a high-profile Lebanese-American businessman, “has been successful in kind of converting and talking to people to explain why Trump would be better,” Ninan said.
And some Muslims began souring on the Democrats long before the war in Gaza began or the economy tanked — thanks to the party’s embrace of woke policies in schools and local governments.
In 2023, Muslim clerics issued a nationwide call urging their followers to confront “gender ideology,” The Los Angeles Times has reported. Especially in deep blue areas like Montgomery County, Md., Muslim Americans have organized protests against the incorporation of sexual topics and transgenderism in public schools.
As the Democratic Party increasingly reflects the deep progressive ideology of woke wine moms, Muslims are feeling that it no longer represents them.
“The Muslim leadership post-9/11 got so afraid, everyone got so scared,” Sheikh Mustafa Umar of the Islamic Center of Irvine explained. “People [were] like, ‘Let’s just team up just with anybody who is willing to talk to us.’ Not thinking about the long-term consequences . . . that was a huge mistake.”
But in a presidential election that could be the closest in decades, the Muslim vote may be the difference-maker — and their departure should leave Democrats soul-searching.
Ryan Girdusky is the author of “They’re Not Listening: How The Elites Created the National Populist Revolution.”