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The World Series shifts to the Bronx on Monday night as the Yankees try to dig themselves out of a 2-0 hole.
Los Angeles, which is scoring 6.2 runs per game in the playoffs, has used the long ball to its advantage in the World Series, out-homering the Yankees 4-2.
As a result of the Dodgers’ potent offense, we’ve seen a closing total of eight or more runs in nine of their 13 postseason games.
Game 3 features another high total of 8.5, which could prove promising in deciding which props to target on Monday night.
Best bets: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 3 props
Dodgers team total over 3.5 runs (-135, DraftKings)
We’re getting the Dodgers team total at a shorter price because the Yankees are a decent-sized home favorite with odds as high as -155 at Caesars Sportsbook.
However, Los Angeles should have the edge in the pitching matchup between Walker Buehler and Clarke Schmidt.
This will be Schmidt’s third postseason start, and I imagine he’ll have a few butterflies fluttering in his stomach as he makes his World Series debut.
While his 3.86 ERA during the playoffs looks assuring on the surface, his 4.56 FIP points to further regression.
It’s worth noting that his playoff starts came against the Royals and Guardians—two teams ranked that finished in the bottom half of the league using the wRC+ offensive metric.
In contrast, the Dodgers led baseball with a wRC+ value of 118, and their ability to hit for extra bases should result in enough scoring opportunities to go over their team total of 3.5 runs.
Clarke Schmidt under 4.5 strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
After highlighting why Schmidt could struggle in his World Series debut, it makes sense to double down and fade his strikeout prop.
With the Yankees facing a 2-0 deficit, Schmidt is unlikely to have a long leash if he gets into trouble. The right-hander has yet to complete five innings in his postseason starts despite throwing fewer than 80 pitches in both games.
Playoff baseball is entirely different from the regular season, as every pitch feels like a high-leverage spot.
Thus, the Yankees won’t hesitate to go to their bullpen early if it means preventing Schmidt from getting another turn through this powerful Dodgers lineup.
Jazz Chisholm to record a hit (-135, BetMGM)
Chisholm hasn’t had a great postseason, as he’s hitting just .186 with eight hits in 43 at-bats.
However, he’s been a bit more comfortable at home, recording a hit in five of his last six games and six of his previous seven when playing in the Bronx.
Chisholm is also one of four Yankees hitters who have faced Buehler, and he’s 3-for-5 in those plate appearances.
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He has recorded a hit in 11 of 14 career games against the Dodgers, finishing with at least two hits six times.
Given the pitching matchup and the opponent, there’s simply too much upside to ignore Chisholm recording a hit at -135 odds.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.