New polling of battleground states forecasts wins for Donald Trump across the board in a quartet of them, positioning him for 280 electoral votes and a return to the White House.
The surveys from Insider Advantage and the Trafalgar Group spotlighted contests between Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia.
In the Keystone State, where 19 electoral votes are up for grabs, the Insider Advantage survey shows Trump up 48% to 47% among 800 likely voters over the Democratic nominee, with 3% undecided and 2% saying they will support another candidate.
The average poll in the state shows Trump up by half a percentage point, so this aligns with the narrow lead the GOP nominee has currently and with historical performance; the former president won it in 2016 by 0.73% and lost it 4 years later by 1.17%.
Worth watching: the candidates’ performance with Hispanic voters, which is almost as close as the overall poll. Harris is up 42% to 40% with the key cohort, perhaps explaining why she outlined a strategy for Puerto Rico revitalization over the weekend including an economic task force.
Trump’s strength in the state may help in the Senate race, a dead heat at 47% between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick.
Insider Advantage also shows Trump up 48% to 47% among 800 likely voters in Michigan, where 15 electoral votes are up for grabs. 3% want another option, while 2% are undecided.
Polls in this state have been ridiculously tight, with the average being a 0.1% lead for the former president, who won the state by 0.2% 8 years ago, but lost to Joe Biden by 2.8% last cycle.
The Senate race is a dead heat here too in the battle to replace outgoing Democrat Debbie Stabenow. Both Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are tied at 48% in the state.
Both InsiderAdvantage polls were in the field Oct. 26 and 27.
In Arizona, where 1,084 likely voters were polled by Trafalgar from Oct. 24 through Oct. 26, split ticket voters will rule the day.
Trump leads 48% to 46% in the battle for 11 electoral votes, but as has been the case in poll after poll, his allure in the Grand Canyon State likely won’t lift Kari Lake out of the abyss, as she trails Rep. Ruben Gallego 50% to 46% in the Senate race.
The former president won the state in 2016, but lost by 0.3% last cycle.
Trafalgar polled 1,087 likely voters in Georgia also, and the Peach State’s 16 electoral votes appear to be just peachy for the former president, who leads Harris 48% to 46%, with 1% picking another candidate and 5% undecided.
Trump lost the state to Biden by 0.2% in 2020.