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After nearly a week of anticipation, baseball fans were treated to an instant World Series classic that did far more than live up to the hype.
Freddie Freeman added to his Hall of Fame resume on Friday night by becoming the first player to hit a walk-off grand slam in the World Series, handing the Dodgers a dramatic 6-3 victory in extra innings and a 1-0 series lead.
In baseball’s wild-card era, teams that have won Game 1 of the World Series have gone on to win it all 79% of the time.
Most of those series, however, weren’t as evenly priced before Game 1 as this one, and at the Dodgers’ current price (-240, DraftKings) to win the series, oddsmakers are implying a 70.6% chance that they win their eighth Fall Classic.
Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 2 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | +120 | +1.5 (-185) | o8.5 (-120) |
| Dodgers | -140 | -1.5 (+150) | u8.5 (+100) |
Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 2 prediction
The Yankees are larger underdogs in Game 2 than in Game 1, as Carlos Rodon is set to battle Dodgers rookie right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Rodon has pitched to a 4.40 ERA in 14 ⅓ innings this postseason, but that number undersells his three appearances.
He struck out seven batters versus the Royals but fell apart in the fourth inning. Since then, he’s bounced back with two quality starts in the ALCS, versus a Guardians side that hit lefties well this season.
In his first three playoff starts, the lefty Rodon owns a stellar xFIP of 1.99 and a K-BB percentage of 35.6.
Rodon’s 122 Stuff+ rating this season is the best mark of any starter from either side in the series.
Opponents held a miss rate of 33% in two-strike counts versus Rodon in 2024, which is the second-best mark among qualified starters in MLB.
Yamamoto earned plenty of praise for his performance in a do-or-die Game 5 versus the Padres in the NLDS and followed it up with a reasonable showing in his lone start in the NLCS.
Still, he has pitched to a 5.11 ERA this postseason and features a far less convincing underlying profile than his counterpart.
In 12 ⅓ innings in the playoffs, Yamamoto owns a 4.07 xFIP and has been hard hit 39% of the time. He also holds a K-BB percentage of 13.5 in that span.
At full strength, the Dodgers’ lineup is an terror for any lefty.
It put up a league-leading 121 wRC+ versus southpaws this season.
The Yankees were comparably dominant versus righties though, with a league-leading wRC+ of 120.
The Dodgers have a much deeper bullpen than the Yankees — an advantage that became a big storyline in Game 1 when Aaron Boone made a controversial decision to put starter Nestor Cortes in a high-leverage situation when he hadn’t pitched in over a month. The results were disastrous.
Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 2 pick
While it’s going to take some resiliency to bounce back from such a heartbreaking loss, the Yankees have a good chance to do so with Rodon on the mound.
If Rodon can command the ball effectively, he has the stuff to tame the Dodgers high powered lineup.
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At +120, I do see value in backing the Yankees to win this matchup.
However, I prefer the option of backing New York at +110 or better to win the first five innings, based on my belief that Rodon is offering an edge over Yamamoto.
You can get similar odds for both outcomes at most sportsbooks.
Best bet: Yankees F5 moneyline (+120, bet365 | Play to +110)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.