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Alabama has played in four straight nail-biting one-score games, struggling to pull away in each contest.
Last week, the 15th-ranked Crimson Tide lost to Tennessee, giving them little to no margin for error for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, No. 21 Missouri escaped with a four-point win over Auburn after trailing for most of the game to move to 6-1.
The two teams meet on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a huge SEC matchup with plenty of College Football Playoff implications.
Alabama opened as a 13.5-point favorite and the spread has ballooned to the Crimson Tide laying 17 points. Meanwhile, the total got as high as 57 points before dropping to as low as 51.
Missouri vs. Alabama odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | +16.5 (-105) | +550 | o51.5 (-105) |
| Alabama | -16.5 (-115) | -800 | u51.5 (-115) |
When Missouri has the ball
The Tigers will be shorthanded on offense as quarterback Brady Cook and running back Nate Noel are doubtful on the injury report.
Last week, Cook left the game with a high-ankle sprain against Auburn, but he returned to help lead Missouri to the comeback win. If he’s out, it would be Drew Pyne, who completed just 47.6% of his passes and posted a dreadful 3.7 yards per attempt last week.
With Noel sidelined, the Tigers will rely heavily on Marcus Carroll. The App State transfer is averaging 4.7 yards per carry to Noel’s 6.1, but he has forced 15 missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus.
It will likely be tough sledding for him against a Crimson Tide run defense that ranks 16th in EPA per rush allowed.
Luther Burden III is one of the most talented wide receivers in the country, but he hasn’t made the same impact this year, and the downgrade at quarterback won’t help his case. He’s posted 90-plus receiving yards just once this season after doing so in eight of his 13 games last year.
The Crimson Tide secondary has been vulnerable to giving up explosives, but the Tigers rank just 94th in yards per drop-back allowed this season.
When Alabama has the ball
After showing incredible signs of progress over the first month of the season, Jalen Milroe has played two of the worst games of his career over the last two weeks. In those contests, he’s thrown four turnover-worthy plays with no big-time throws, and he’s completed just 1-of-8 deep passes.
Alabama has struggled to protect Milroe, which could be a real problem against a Tigers defense that ranks 23rd in havoc. The Tide, meanwhile, ranks 105th in havoc allowed.
It’s fair to note that the opposing schedule of quarterbacks hasn’t been elite, but Missouri ranks top-15 in EPA per pass and passing success rate allowed.
Alabama will likely also struggle to consistently run the ball against a defense that ranks in the top 25 in yards per rush allowed and tackling.
The Tide surprisingly ranks just 87th in rushing success rate on offense despite having a talented backfield headlined by Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, alongside Milroe’s rushing threat.
Missouri vs. Alabama pick
The Alabama defense has been heavily criticized. However, this looks like a get-right spot for Kane Wommack’s group against an offense missing its top quarterback and running back.
The Tigers have been underwhelming on offense, and it’s difficult to envision Pyne having much success on the road against a defense still loaded with talent.
Meanwhile, I don’t expect a barrage of scoring from Alabama against a defense that has maintained strong marks across the board under first-year DC Corey Batoon.
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Milroe will likely hit a couple of explosive plays through the air to Ryan Williams. Still, the down-to-down consistency won’t be there behind an offensive line that looks overmatched against a havoc-minded Tigers front.
The total has already dropped in response to Missouri’s injuries, but other aspects of this game still lead me to the under, and I’d play anything over the key number of 51.
Best bet: Under 51.5 points (-115, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.