Canada’s “food professor” blames shrinkflation as rising costs take a toll. Will consumers switch to chips instead?
Shrinkflation — a phenomenon where product sizes shrink but prices remain the same — is set to affect candy bags across the country, according to Sylvain Charlebois, Canada’s so-called “food professor.”
“Price points have stayed the same, but you’re getting less for your money,” Charlebois said. He is a professor at Dalhousie University who tracks grocery prices across Canada.
The reason behind this trend? Rising costs of key ingredients like cocoa and sugar have quietly pushed manufacturers to reduce product sizes to avoid alarming consumers.
“When you buy a bag of treats, you’re not getting 50 pieces anymore—you’re getting 45, or instead of 100, you’re getting 95,” he said.
The surge in ingredient prices has been substantial. Cocoa beans, the backbone of the chocolate industry, have nearly doubled in cost, while sugar has spiked by about 24 per cent since May. Pascal Thériault, an agricultural economics professor at McGill University, attributed the rise in cocoa bean prices to poor harvests in Western Africa, which produces about 60 per cent of the world’s supply.
Heavy rains followed by droughts, aging plantations and climate-driven diseases have slashed yields, Thériault said. Yet, despite these setbacks in supply, demand for chocolate remains robust.
This Halloween arrives as consumers continue to feel the impact of years of high inflation, according to RBC economist Carrie Freestone. Although inflation has eased, shoppers are more mindful of their spending.
Charlebois noted that brands, like Cadbury, are still competing fiercely on price, while retailers like Walmart are offering competitive prices on certain goods but that on average your pound for your buck is diminishing.
Charlebois believes many consumers may turn to chips this year as a cheaper alternative, attracted by the larger-looking bags.
Walmart Canada did not comment directly on prices generally but said the grocery store kept key items at last year’s price, like Nestle 50-count minis at $6.97, to attract consumers. A spokesperson for Walmart Canada said the grocery store is on track to sell more than 4,000 tonnes of salty and sweet snacks in the weeks leading up to Halloween.
“I’d rather be upfront about increasing prices than give my customers smaller pieces of chocolate,” she said.
For Gervais-Fredette, whose shop has been a community fixture for more than two decades, transparency is essential. Although Halloween isn’t as significant a sales event as Christmas or Easter, it’s still a “small holiday” for her business.
With larger retailers, however, Charlebois predicts shrinkflation can only go so far. Already sensitive to rising costs, consumers may soon reach a breaking point as they notice the ever-diminishing size of their favourite products — which could lead to a reversal in the size of chocolate bars.
And for Canada’s food professor, it can’t come fast enough. Lamenting the shrinking size of one of his personal favourites, Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, Charlebois said: “They’ve gone from two-bite sizes to one-bite sizes to teaser sizes.”
He doesn’t monitor Reese’s data, as it would be “too hurtful.”